AP Photo/Matt Slocum

The Rundown: Hoyer Backs Counsell, Steele Makes Final Start, AFL Rosters Announced, Playoff Races Heating Up

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 26, 2024

“There’s a battle ahead; many battles are lost. But you’ll never see the end of the road while you’re traveling with me.” – Crowded House, Don’t Dream It’s Over

Note: Sorry if some of this is old news, I wrote it on Wednesday but it didn’t post immediately.

Without directly saying so, it sounds like Jed Hoyer is saying that “intelligent spending” has created the inefficiency that keeps the Cubs continually behind the Brewers. Chicago Manager Craig Counsell wants his team to dominate the NL Central, but the president of baseball operations remains focused on being just good enough to sneak into the playoffs.

“When we talk about the gap, we’ve come a long way,” Hoyer said the other day. “And I feel really good about the position we’re in. But there’s still a gap. That last stretch, that’s what we have to make up. I feel like we’ve come a long way, but we have a lot of room to get to those 90-win teams that we need to have. Last year, the Wild Card was fairly low [amount of wins]. This year it looks like it’s going to be in the 90s. The goal has to be: How do we get in that range?”

I want to point out to Mr. Hoyer that the Cubs aren’t closing the gap. Chicago finished 83-79 (.513) last season, nine games behind the Brewers, and one game shy of supplanting the Diamondbacks as the final Wild Card seed. This year’s squad is 81-77 (.513) after beating the Phillies 10-4 on Tuesday evening. Despite a $30 million increase in payroll, they’re 9.5 games behind Milwaukee and have been eliminated from postseason contention because they trail Arizona by six games. By any metric, that gap has widened. Hoyer built a team capable of winning 84 games and that’s where the Cubs should finish, but that’s not good enough.

Look, I’m sure Hoyer is a great baseball mind or he wouldn’t have one of a handful of top MLB executive positions, but I’d rather see a less deliberate approach by Chicago’s front office. Sometimes you’ve just got to grip it, rip it, and stop letting fear of failure overcome the desire to succeed. Chicago’s high-floor approach to the offseason has all the warmth of Burndown charts, Kanban boards, and Gantt workflows. The phrases “intelligent spending,” “opportunity costs,” and “threading the needle” sound, in fact, like something from an Agile manifesto. I don’t think any other front offices operate similarly, at least not those with the financial wherewithal to think a little outside the box. Or a lot, for that matter.

That doesn’t mean I condone egregious spending for the sake of maximizing payroll. The teams that consistently win don’t necessarily spend the most money, but they do tend to make the smartest decisions. There’s just as much value in making sound player choices as there is in preventing payroll bloat and avoiding diminishing ROIs.

If Hoyer indeed understands he needs to close the gap between the Cubs and the Brewers, it’s only because it’s a hole he dug himself. Counsell said as much by providing an honest assessment of the current state of the team, and Hoyer for the most part backed Counsell’s analysis.

“[Counsell] is an incredible baseball mind,” the executive said. “We’d be crazy not to listen to things he says, wants, and believes. You want every single good idea and every single angle. He can provide that.”

If you’ve worked within the framework of a metrics-based ideology, you understand that collaboration, continuous improvement, and treating failures as learning opportunities are the keys to effectively managing change. Still, the lesson learned here is to not live so precisely on the margins.

I realize I’m a week shy of this season’s autopsy, but two years of similar, middling results tell me that the floor-to-ceiling ratio in which Hoyer operates is far too narrow to reduce the chasm that currently exists between Milwaukee and Chicago. If Counsell can help Hoyer move beyond the current standards of Chicago’s operational policies he’s worth every penny of his groundbreaking contract.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

Checks notes… Did he mean the Cubs?

Ball Four

I suppose we can look to the promise of the Arizona Fall League while fans of 12 other teams get to participate in this year’s run to the World Series. Moises Ballesteros this year headlines a group of seven Chicago prospects who will play for the Mesa Solar Sox. The other players are pitchers Shane Marshall, Aaron Perry, Vince Reilly, and Luis Rujano, and infielders Ben Cowles and Jonathan Long.

The Solar Sox will play the Surprise Saguards on Opening Night, October 7.

Central Intelligence

How About That!

The Padres clinched a playoff berth thanks to a game-ending triple play that stunned the Dodgers. San Diego is two games behind Los Angeles for the NL West crown with five to play.

Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal will pitch in a Wild Card game if the Tigers don’t need him to clinch on Sunday. The Royals are tied with Detroit for the final two entries, and the Twins are two games back.

There are several games on tap today to whet your playoff appetite. It’s not often that we get a final week of the MLB regular season with this much at stake — and with this many of the teams in the mix playing each other.

The White Sox are so bad they’ve taken the randomness out of baseball.

Farhan Zaidi heads a list of seven baseball executives that could be replaced this winter. Hoyer is not listed, in case you’re wondering.

Extra Innings

Brandon Birdsell might help me overcome the sadness I felt when Jackson Ferris was traded to the Dodgers for Michael Busch. I am happy with Busch however, and I believe he’ll have a better career than Ferris.

They Said It

  • “[In] seasons like this, there are successes, and there are things that aren’t good enough. That leads to your record. That’s earned. And none of those are promised — the successes or the failures — moving forward. That’s one of the difficult parts about evaluating teams as well. Obviously, we’ve got to maximize those successes again. We’ve got to create more success. Clearly, there wasn’t enough.” – Counsell
  • “It’s not only what holes in the roster we need to fill, it’s also what’s available. And then how do you make that happen? Every offseason, the tapestry is complex, trying to figure out what’s available, what’s not.” – Hoyer

Wednesday Walk-Up Song

Wait ’til next year… (take me to the magic moment).

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 26, 2024
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