‘Disappointed But Optimistic’ Jed Hoyer Says Outperforming Projections Key to Future Success
If it walks like a lame duck and talks like a lame duck, it’s probably Jed Hoyer. The Cubs’ president of baseball operations addressed the media Tuesday morning to toss his annual postseason word salad and explain why things may not be as bad as some believe and how he plans to ensure his team is playing baseball in October next year. It was basically the verbal equivalent of a plain iceberg lettuce wedge, which is to be expected from a guy who is adept at saying nothing.
The phrase of the day was “outperforming projections,” as in what the Cubs need to do in order to move past mediocrity. My initial reaction is that relying on that makes for a very flimsy strategy, which we saw all too clearly in 2024, but we can dive into it a little more later.
“When I think about our season and where we are, I’m disappointed but optimistic,” Hoyer said. “Any time you set a goal for yourself and you fall short of that goal, there’s disappointment. I think from the top down, this year, the expectation was to play in the playoffs and we didn’t get there. And we have to be better, to move beyond 83-79 two consecutive years.
“But I’m really excited about next year, I think we’re building from a really great foundation going forward. And we need to get back to the postseason for these fans. I think that’s what the fans deserve, and we’ll get there.”
Ed. note: It’s not lost on me that I have gotten an email and a phone call from the Cubs today asking me about securing 2025 season tickets. And I’m not even on the season ticket waiting list they reestablished recently.
That last sentence is probably where we should end because it’s all that matters and it’s the standard to which Hoyer must be held as he enters the final year of his contract. Though he didn’t go so far as to say the Cubs will be in the postseason next year, the situation dictates that they have to be for him to keep his job. Then again, remaining plausibly competitive for most of the year keeps butts in seats and ensures the organization is in the black.
Despite what a lot of folks tend to think, Hoyer himself isn’t satisfied with just staying above .500 and making it look like the team could be decent. He really does want to win, it’s just that he hasn’t yet shown the chutzpah to do what it takes to make that happen. It doesn’t help that the roster crunch from a position-player standpoint is quite limiting, particularly if Cody Bellinger chooses to stick around.
Remember how Hoyer talked a few times during the Cubs’ stretch of poor play about how improvement had to come from within? He went back to that well again on Tuesday and expanded upon it a bit.
“You guys have asked me a few times this year about, ‘Do we need a star?'” Hoyer said. “Like star players and stars can help get through those slumps, and certainly Cody was a top-10 MVP guy last year and felt like he played like a five-plus-win player for most of the year and carried us for big stretches. And that really did help us a ton during that stretch.
“It’s a hard thing to figure out. If you look at the 12 teams in the playoffs, like every team in the playoffs has a guy that had five or more wins this year. So there’s no question that when you’re looking to beat projections, when you’re looking to have that excellent season, having players just outperform expectations is a big part of it.”
Here’s where I’ll put a little more color behind the idea of relying on outlier seasons from a player or two, because it’s not as simple as just hoping for that. The fact of the matter is that any successful team is going to have some breakout performances during their best seasons, not to mention keeping most key players healthy. So it’s less a matter of crossing your fingers and more just acknowledging how good fortune or timing plays a role.
At the same time, there’s something to be said for buying a little more certainty in the form of a superstar player whose down years would still be career seasons for other players. Or you can look at the Braves, who still snuck into the playoffs following what was a disappointing campaign by their standards. They did that by stockpiling depth and making shrewd deals, something the Cubs could certainly work toward this winter.
The idea that the Cubs need a true star, a middle-of-the-order bat to serve as the rising tide for the rest of the roster, has been around for a while. But it sure doesn’t sound as though Hoyer has deviated from his aversion to monster contracts, and he may be even more steadfast on that front than he’s been in the past.
“We haven’t truly gotten into our offseason planning mode yet, so I think characterizing what we’re gonna do this winter it’s too early for that,” Hoyer explained. “I think, in general, I think the goal is to build something that’s sustainable. Craig actually talked about building 90-win teams. What he really means is building teams that can project to that year after year. That’s a difficult thing to do, only three teams in baseball were projected for 90 wins going into the season.
“To get to a place where we can build our projections up and consistently make the postseason year after year, I think there’s a level of discipline to do that. You don’t want to take wild swings and you don’t want to do things that are going to expose you long-term.”
He went on to say that the Cubs will spend a lot of time this winter looking at how they can find ways to put players in better positions to outperform expectations. Just look at how Seiya Suzuki excelled as the DH, finishing the season with a career-best 138 wRC+ and 3.5 fWAR. That wRC+ mark has jumped by 10 points each season and could do so again in ’25, putting Suzuki in line to be one of those five-win breakout players.
“We have to beat projections, we have to have players outperform,” Hoyer reiterated. “‘Cause like I said, ultimately, having players outperform, having players beat those projections, that’s how you have the season that we want to have.”
He didn’t completely close the door on outside additions, though he tempered it thoroughly by saying improvement “may be external, it may well be internal.” I do believe they’ll be in search of a big bat, a pursuit that will hinge mainly on Bellinger’s decision. And while there have also been multiple reports about targeting rotation help, I can’t imagine the bargain-shopping Hoyer handing over the club’s first-ever $200+ million deal to a starter in his 30s.
The bullpen will certainly be addressed as well, especially since that’s where a team can pay for a higher floor without having to put out nine figures. Of course, Hoyer gave every indication last year that he’d learned from previous mistakes and was more willing to seek “certainty” in relievers. In the end, they fell back to more of a scattershot approach with Héctor Neris standing as their biggest relief acquisition.
“That’s something that I didn’t do a good job of last offseason,” Hoyer said of the bullpen construction. “That’s something that we’ll certainly look to improve moving forward.”
The failure with Neris is another example of Hoyer’s obsession with beating projections. That’s how the Cubs ended up pouncing on Shōta Imanaga and it’s why they were willing to go over the competitive balance tax threshold to sign Bellinger. Those players were projected to earn more, much more in some cases, so getting them on greatly reduced prices meant better value and greater potential for them to outperform the deal.
That might be my biggest takeaway here, the idea that this offseason will yet again be spent seeking the most possible value from players’ upsides as they can. Not the same thing as targeting the most bang regardless of buck, but hey, maybe the weight of heading into the final year of his contract will spur the otherwise conservative POBO to splurge a little.
“I think there’s always pressure with professional sports, I think that’s part of it,” Hoyer said. “But I’m excited about next year and I look at it as an opportunity. I feel pressure, but I feel pressure that I always would feel, which is that I’m president of the Cubs and this is an exciting opportunity and an exciting time to be in this role.
“We’re in a really good position.”
Ed. note 2: I couldn’t find a good way to fit it into the piece, but many people noted how Hoyer essentially blamed the weather at Wrigley for some of the Cubs’ struggles. While it’s true that this was an aberrant season in terms of how often and hard the wind was blowing in, both teams were impacted the same way.