AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

The Rundown: Hoyer Addresses Press, Looking at Cubs’ Offseason Options, 4 Teams Facing Playoff Elimination Today

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 2, 2024

“From Meccano to Legoland, here they come with a brick in their hand. Men with heads filled up with sand. Let’s build.” – The Housemartins, Build

Jed Hoyer held his end-of-season presser on Tuesday, and what did we learn about the 2024 Cubs?

  1. The front office expected some players to outperform their projections. That didn’t happen this year.
  2. Wrigley Field weather hurt the team.
  3. The Cubs need a star player, but Hoyer prefers a more organic route, i.e. someone who is currently a member of the organization.
  4. Hoyer and his staff are disappointed but remain committed to building a sustainable winning team.
  5. When self-assessing his work, the president of baseball operations believes he’s done a fine job.
  6. Hoyer views 2025 as a challenge because he is in the final year of his contract.
  7. He acknowledged he is set at the corners with Michael Busch and Isaac Paredes, and thinks Busch has Gold Glove potential.
  8. When asked about Cody Bellinger, Hoyer said he believes the outfielder/first baseman will have plenty of suitors if he chooses to opt out.
  9. Next year’s budget for baseball operations hasn’t been finalized yet, a process that involves chairman Tom Ricketts and president of business operations Crane Kenney.
  10. Finally, Hoyer remains optimistic and said that the organization needs to get back to the postseason because it is indebted to its fans.

That sounds a lot like the description of something you’d find in your app store, so perhaps going forward we can refer to ol’ Jed as the iHoyer. Chicago’s top executive has made the same speech so many times he no longer needs to rehearse it. Yesterday’s presser sounded like the keynote at a luncheon for IT professionals.

“In general, the goal is to build something that’s sustainable,” Hoyer said. “Craig actually talked about building 90-win teams. What he really means is building teams that can project that year after year after year. That’s a difficult thing to do. Only three teams in baseball were projected for 90 wins going into the season. So to get to a place where we can build our projections up and consistently make the postseason year after year, I think there’s a level of discipline to do that. You don’t want to take wild swings. And you don’t want to do things that are going to expose you long term.”

In other words, Hoyer will stick to the mundane and methodical approach that limits him to three-year contracts for 3-WAR players with the hope that a handful will outperform that metric by 2-3 wins. Bellinger, for example, was an overperforming 5-WAR player in 2023. That’s the organization’s definition of a star.

Look, I understand the mentality. He’s trying to buy elevated production at a discounted price, which should be the goal of every front office. Sometimes it works but in most cases it doesn’t, so he has to be willing to occasionally swim outside his lane. Sign a Bryce Harper or extend a Kyle Schwarber. Hoyer’s fear of regression to the mean has made his roster just that. He builds floors and hopes for a higher ceiling, but the Cubs are 166-158 in the last two seasons. That’s as mean as it gets.

Do the Cubs have a superstar in their ranks? Outfielders Owen Caissie and Pete Crow-Armstrong are potentially 6-WAR players, and Ian Happ has said as much about the latter. The Cubs placed seven prospects on MLB.com’s top 100 this summer, though none ranked in the top 20. Chicago’s organizational ranking dropped from No. 2 to No. 8, too, but not due to the ascension of any prized prospects except Crow-Armstrong, Busch, Jordan Wicks, and Ben Brown. Hoyer has been treading water while all of the National League contenders have pushed their organizational standards higher.

The next season will be a pivotal one in Chicago, and it’s safe to say it will be a make-or-break year for Chicago’s front office. Hoyer will never work under the pretense of urgency or any type of fundamental change to his plans. He’s not lazy, just deliberate and predictable along with, in his words, disappointed but optimistic. Closing the gap that exists between the Brewers and Cubs is going to take some heavy lifting, so we’ll see if Hoyer can meet the challenge.

Cubs News & Notes

Let’s take a break here this morning, as Hoyer’s presser is the only significant news and there is much more to cover below.

Odds & Sods

Even Pete Rose wouldn’t take that bet.

Ball Four

These are the five areas of concern Hoyer and his front office will address in their attempt to build a 90-win team:

  1. Is Miguel Amaya the team’s future starting catcher? One report after the trade deadline said the Cubs “aggressively pursued” power-hitting backstop Logan O’Hoppe of the Angels. The Dodgers and Athletics are deep at catcher, too, and Chicago was also linked to Danny Jansen in July. Jansen is set to reach free agency this winter, as is Carson Kelly. The Cubs might also consider Iowa catcher Moises Ballésteros as a replacement for or backup to Amaya, but the front office isn’t sold on the 20-year-old’s defense.
  2. Will Hoyer acquire a left-handed, power-hitting bat? Bellinger’s decision will likely sway Hoyer one way or the other, but Chicago’s lineup is logjammed for the most part. In hindsight, signing Matt Chapman instead of Bellinger would have been the better move. As stated above, the Cubs are covered at the corners with Busch and Paredes, while Seiya Suzuki is starting to look like a full-time DH. Right field options include Caissie and Kevin Alcántara, or the Cubs could make a run at Anthony Santander. The switch-hitting outfielder nearly doubled the power output of Happ, who paced Chicago with 25 taters. Teoscar Hernández is another option for the Cubs. You can forget about Juan Soto.
  3. How will Craig Counsell‘s bullpen line up? Porter Hodge led the Cubs with nine saves after Hector Neris was DFA’d, so he’s the incumbent closer. The hard-throwing righty was mostly dominant, logging a 1.88 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 19 walks while limiting batters to a .132 BA in 43 innings. Tyson Miller was a strong midseason acquisition, though he was not without his missteps. Hodge is on his rookie contract and Miller isn’t arb-eligible until 2027. Nate Pearson is a former first-round pick who pitched to a 147 ERA+ after coming to Chicago, and he’s expected to earn $1.44 million in arbitration this winter. Clay Holmes is the best reliever available in free agency but he had a rough season. Kendall Graveman could be an option, or Hoyer could elect to re-sign Jorge López if he’s interested. Ben Brown is also someone to keep an eye on if he fails to earn a spot in the team’s rotation.
  4. Are the Cubs seeking an additional starting pitcher? Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole (if he opts out) are the top-tier starters available, and Rōki Sasaki is right there with them if he decides to post. The Cubs will in all likelihood lose Kyle Hendricks though the hope is that top pitching prospect Cade Horton will be ready for the bigs in 2025. Chicago has also been linked to Nathan Eovaldi, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and Shane Bieber at times. The Padres could be forced to trade Dylan Cease, but Hoyer indicated he’s not looking for players on one-year deals. José Urquidy is a non-tender candidate with the Astros, and though he’s injured, the Cubs nearly acquired him for Willson Contreras two years ago. Rumors have also linked soon-to-be free agent Walker Buehler to the Cubs, which seems like a bit of a stretch. José Quintana will be a free agent and he’d be a decent and cheap fifth starter/swingman. Anyone?
  5. Will Hoyer consider trading one or more of his regulars? I don’t believe the Cubs are going to trade Nico Hoerner because Hoyer values defense too much. Amaya could be swapped out as part of a deal for another catcher.

Central Intelligence

How About That!

Per The Athletic, embattled broadcast outfit Diamond Sports Group says in 2025 it will stop carrying all but one of the 12 MLB teams it now televises ($), and those 11 clubs will either need to renegotiate new contracts with Diamond or find another option elsewhere. The Braves are the only team to survive the purge.

The Brewers are on the brink of elimination after their bullpen imploded on Tuesday.

Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal helped the Tigers jump to a 1-0 series lead over the Astros.

Michael King and Fernando Tatís Jr. led the Padres to a win over the Braves in San Diego. Petco Park announced its highest attendance since the Friars started playing there.

Cole Ragans pitched six shutout innings as the Royals blanked the Orioles 1-0. Seth Lugo will attempt to sweep Baltimore out of the playoffs today.

Baseball fans are not happy that Strauss endorsements have been added to the batting helmets of all playoff teams. The German workwear apparel company paid to put its logo on both sides of each player’s cap.

The Yankees activated Ben Rice because Anthony Rizzo is not expected to play in the ALDS. Rizzo, who is still on the roster, injured his fingers during the final weekend of the season.

MLB posted its first back-to-back attendance increase since the 2011-12 seasons.

Game times this season averaged 2 hours 36 minutes, the lowest since 1984.

The league also recorded its highest steals total since 1915. That’s insane.

The Yankees donated $1 million to the Hurricane Helene relief fund.

Make Way for the Leg

Bears punter Tory Taylor is one bad dude. The Aussie phenom has become the weapon GM Ryan Poles envisioned when he drafted him.

Extra Innings

Rick Sutcliffe going deep and putting the Cubs just two wins shy of going to the 1984 World Series is one of my favorite baseball memories. Those were the days, my friend, and we thought they’d never end.

They Said It

  • “It’s getting back to just making good decisions on a long-term basis, drafting and developing well, and truly having a healthy organization can lead us to that sustained success where the playoffs are an expectation and not a surprise and not a one-year thing. That’s the goal. It’s not pushing all in for a year.” – Hoyer
  • “There’s always pressure. It’s professional sports. That’s part of it. I’m excited about next year and I look at it as an opportunity. I feel pressure, but I feel the pressure I always should feel, which is: I’m president of the Cubs and this is an exciting opportunity and it’s also an exciting time to be in this role. We’re in a really good position.” – Hoyer

Wednesday Walk-Up Song

“Pretty good, not bad, and I can’t complain, but actually, everything is just about the same.” – John Prine

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 2, 2024
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