The Rundown: Pitching Market Starting to Move, Latest Cubs Blockbuster Trade Suggestions, Dodgers Sign Snell
I love the Cubs’ chances of signing Rōki Sasaki now that Blake Snell has signed with the Dodgers, something I projected in yesterday’s Rundown. Snell signed a five-year deal late Tuesday night with an annual average value of $36.4 million, and I think we can safely say the Cubs were never going to drop that kind of coin on the two-time Cy Young Award winner. Los Angeles is paying Snell Tyler Glasnow money, something I never thought I would write, but that’s the going AAV for a No. 1 starter these days.
- Zack Wheeler – $42 million
- Jacob deGrom – $37 million (He’ll earn $40 million this year).
- Gerrit Cole – $36 million
- Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer all made more than $30 million in 2024.
Corbin Burnes will probably fall somewhere between Snell and Wheeler once he is signed. Chicago’s highest-paid pitcher is Jameson Taillon, who will earn $18 million this year and now looks like a bona fide trade candidate. By comparison, Yusei Kikuchi got $63 million over three years from the Angels. It might be time for the Cubs to explore extensions for Justin Steele, Javier Assad, and possibly Cade Horton.
Snell gets $52M signing bonus #dodgers
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 27, 2024
The Dodgers seem to have an endless supply of money, and the team is not averse to blowing past luxury tax ceilings, though a lot of Snell’s money is deferred. Their next target is probably Juan Soto, but they could chase Burnes and Sasaki, too. A rotation of Snell, Glasnow, Burnes, and/or Sasaski, plus Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani is reminiscent of the dynasty-era Chicago Bulls.
Where does that leave Jed Hoyer and the Cubs? Max Fried remains a good fit, but he’s carrying a qualifying offer. The best of the rest — excluding Sasaki — includes Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, and Jack Flaherty. Each of the three is probably looking at AAVs similar to Taillon.
Sasaki is Hoyer’s top target, and my guess is Chicago will be one of the finalists to sign him. To me, it feels like it will come down to the Cubs or Padres, but I wouldn’t count out the Yankees or Giants, who now have to replace Snell. The Dodgers should never be counted out, but I don’t think Sasaki wants to be a 6th or 7th wheel because he needs local and national marketing opportunities to offset his restricted MLB salary and relatively small IFA signing bonus.
Cubs News & Notes
- Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com proposed a blockbuster trade between the Cubs and Blue Jays. How do you feel about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kevin Gausman for Cody Bellinger, Michael Busch, and Cade Horton?
- If you like intriguing trade suggestions, how about this three-team proposal ($) from ESPN? The Phillies would send Alec Bohm to the Mariners, who would then send Luis Castillo and Harry Ford to the Cubs. Chicago would then send Bellinger to the Phillies and Nico Hoerner to the Mariners. I’ve got a better idea: Why not send Bellinger, Hoerner, Alexander Canario, and cash to the A’s for Brent Rooker and Mason Miller?
- Phil Rogers says the Cubs and White Sox are a great fit in a deal for Garrett Crochet. Rogers suggests packaging Isaac Paredes with two of Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, Kevin Alcántara, Fernando Cruz, and Jefferson Rojas to land the young White Sox lefty.
- A simpler suggestion sends Bellinger and Hoerner to the Braves for Orlando Arcia, Jarred Kelenic, and Hurston Waldrep. That would give the Cubs a Hoyer Trifecta on the return: A semi-expensive infielder coming off of a year of disfiguring regression, a failed MLB outfielder with a strong prospect pedigree, and a former first-round pick who can’t get MLB hitters out.
- MLB-TV analyst Harold Reynolds believes the Yankees will eventually trade for Bellinger. How unimaginative.
- If you prefer to do your Black Friday shopping at the same place Hoyer does, here is a complete list of every non-tendered free agent.
Odds & Sods
I’ll need Joe Biden or Donald Trump to call in the National Guard if the Dodgers sign Soto and/or Sasaki.
Shohei Ohtani said he hasn't actively tried to recruit Roki Sasaki to the Dodgers yet, but said they stay in contact as former Samurai Japan teammates.
"I'll respect his decision wherever he wants to sign." pic.twitter.com/fExaC6aBx2
— MLB News (@MLBNEWSZACK) November 22, 2024
Central Intelligence
- Milwaukee: The Brewers would love to find a way to sign Paul Goldschmidt, but Rhys Hoskins cut them off at the pass.
- St. Louis: The Cardinals could pursue Yankees reliever Clay Holmes in free agency if they trade closer Ryan Helsley. Holmes blew 13 saves last season, Helsley four. Somebody get me a copy of Roster Building for Dummies.
- Cincinnati: Reds pitchers would like the organization to consider making Great American Ballpark a little less hitter-friendly. What, after the Cubs said goodbye to Kyle Hendricks and Héctor Neris?
- Pittsburgh: The Pirates are seeking an upgrade at first base and could pursue Josh Naylor in a trade with the Guardians.
Wednesday Stove
The Red Sox are stepping up their efforts to sign Soto.
Now that Snell has signed, the Yankees and Red Sox could engage in a bidding war for Fried. The team that loses Fried might then become the frontrunner in Crochet trade talks.
There is a “growing sense” that the Cardinals intend to trade Nolan Arenado.
The Astros are looking for a left-handed hitting centerfielder with a little pop. Are you thinking what I’m thinking?
The Giants and free agent catcher Max Stassi have agreed to terms on a minor league contract.
Extra Innings
Sometimes I think the theory of intelligent spending has gaslighted us into aiming low when it comes to free agency. Or, as Maxwell Smart would say, “A coward is a frightened man who’s scared to be brave, chief. But a brave man is only a coward who isn’t scared to be frightened.”
.@LanceBroz and @MLBBruceLevine give their Cubs free agency wishlist 👀 pic.twitter.com/AoCueS3wj9
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) November 27, 2024
Happy Turkey Day (Feed the World)
I’m not sure if I will write tomorrow, but in case I do not, I hope you enjoy your holiday. Remember that some folks aren’t as fortunate as the rest of us, so please consider a donation to the Chicago Food Depository. Every dollar buys three meals, and thank you for your consideration. It would be nice to feed the world, so let’s start by helping those in our backyard.
Gobble Gobble
Here are 30 reasons to be thankful if you’re a baseball fan no matter which team you support.
They Said It
- “We’ve worked very hard to do a good job in the assimilation process for Japanese players. Seiya has done a really good job. Quietly, he was top 20 in OPS in baseball this year. And Shota had a great year. So I would expect that in the Japanese market, the Cubs and Chicago are appealing.” – Hoyer
Wednesday Walk-Up Song
I’m just gonna leave this right here…