Juan Soto Decision Could Come Soon, Cubs Among ‘Viable Candidates’ to Acquire Garrett Crochet

We can argue all day about how the Cubs should be going about their business this winter, but the fact of the matter is that they appear content once again to let other teams topple all the big dominoes first. Their aggressiveness thus far has been aimed at complementary players as the front office seeks to “improve in any fashion” with no clear direction when it comes to targeting a particular need. The acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan and starter Matthew Boyd may have raised the floor ever so slightly, but it’s a stretch to believe they did the same for the ceiling.

Things could start to shift, however, with Juan Soto reportedly trimming his list of suitors now that multiple offers of at least $600 million are in. According to a sourced report from Ken Rosenthal, Soto has begun to eliminate potential destinations and could make a decision this weekend to join one of the five known bidders. That group consists of the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Dodgers, with the latter having already exceeded $1 billion in deferred payments on the books now that contracts for Blake Snell and Tommy Edman have been finalized.

The willingness to punt huge portions of these respective contracts down the road — $66 million of Snell’s $182 million guarantee will be paid over 14 years following the conclusion of the deal — has created a whole new version of Moneyball. At its core, this concept is not dissimilar to what Theo Epstein did in Boston by paying huge overslot bonuses to game the draft. The league made changes to bonus rules as a result, so you have to wonder whether the same will happen to deferrals in the next CBA.

We are facing a distinct reality in which the Dodgers add Soto and Rōki Sasaki to a World Series team that has already added $250 million to its (eventual) bottom line this offseason. They could even bring Teoscar Hernández back as well. The tough thing about this whole situation is that it’s not the Dodgers’ willingness to defer money that really matters. Shohei Ohtani is the one who suggested the game-changing structure of his deal and others are following suit because they want to win.

It’s like when the Cubs were getting free agents to sign with them for less than they could have gotten elsewhere, except on a much larger scale over a longer period. And while it’s easy to wonder why other teams don’t just do the same thing as the Dodgers, the answer is that it might not matter. Set aside your fandom and put yourselves in the shoes of an elite free agent. If you’re getting generational wealth one way or the other and your primary goal is experiencing the greatest degree of success, which organization are you choosing right now?

This whole conversation is taking us dangerously close to the idea of implementing a harder salary cap of sorts, which would have to come with a floor like what the NFL uses. The only way to truly create parity is to prevent the biggest markets from destroying the curve, so to speak, while forcing smaller markets to spend on par with their competitors. That ain’t happening in the next CBA, so it’s just idle talk for now.

Anyway, back to the Cubs, who may be waiting on Soto’s decision to open the gates for trade talks that will likely include Cody Bellinger and at least two of their top prospects. I’d prefer to see such deals happen separately, as it makes far more sense to me for the Cubs to eat more of Bellinger’s $32.5 million than to attach young players as a way to boost the return. All they’d really be doing is steeply discounting their price for said prospects, which would be flat-out dumb.

At roughly $40 million under the first luxury tax penalty level, which looks like a de facto hard cap this season, the Cubs don’t need to clear Bellinger’s salary in order to make significant moves. However, freeing up another $20 million or so while making room for a promotion seems like something this front office is keen to do. I’ve seen a few other outlets discuss what we’ve been saying here for a while now about how the Cubs were very much hoping Bellinger would opt out, so I’m guessing a lot of their reported aggressiveness is tied to moving him elsewhere.

That probably won’t be to the South Side, though Jon Morosi tweeted Wednesday morning that the Cubs are “among the viable candidates to acquire White Sox ace Garrett Crochet.” Does that fly in the face of Sahadev Sharma’s report (link in first paragraph) that the Cubs aren’t really pursuing starters? Maybe if you view things literally, though such a trade would clearly fall into the category of Hoyer deftly concealing his moves.

. @MLB trade market update:

The Cubs and Reds are among the viable candidates to acquire White Sox ace Garrett Crochet.

Of note, the Cubs and White Sox have made 4 trades since 2017, beginning with the José Quintana deal. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 4, 2024

For as much as we criticize his ability to use lots of words to say nothing — oh boy, can I relate — Hoyer is a master at working in silence. The ink was already drying on both the Craig Counsell and Shōta Imanaga deals before reports had even leaked about either, either of which would have been astounding in today’s age of instant information. With that in mind, it’s conceivable that Hoyer is cooking up at least one really big move.

Believing Hoyer can pull off a coup without anyone knowing is one thing, but trusting him to do so with the best possible results is quite another. Morosi noted that the Cubs and Sox have made four trades since 2017, not all of which have worked out particularly well for the North Siders. Landing Crochet would require a huge haul because he doesn’t turn 26 until June and is under club control for two more years with a 2024 arbitration salary that is projected at just $900,000.

The big lefty comes with the requisite injury issues, having missed all of 2022 and most of ’23 due to elbow reconstruction, but he made 32 starts this past season after converting from the bullpen. His fastball sat 97.2 mph and generated 98th-percentile run value, plus there’s reason to believe his slider and changeup can both return to being plus pitches like they were in the ’21 season when he made 54 relief appearances.

I’m a bit skeptical of this possibility for a number of reasons, but adding another southpaw to a rotation that already features three of them isn’t a factor. Would it be weird to add Crochet to Imanaga, Boyd, and Justin Steele, not to mention Jordan Wicks? Yeah, kinda. But Crochet is an entirely different pitcher from any of those. He’s got a slightly different arm angle with more tilt, almost a foot more extension, and five extra ticks on his fastball than the Cubs’ current cadre of lefties.

Crochet has also pitched to reverse splits over the course of his career, limiting right-handed hitters to a .217/.278/.364 slash line. That’s a significant departure from Steele, Imanage, and Boyd, all of whom have generated more traditional results. If the acquisition of Boyd made one of the Cubs’ other swingman types expendable, trading for Crochet would seem to push Wicks close to the must-trade category. Perhaps he’d even be included in the deal.

He wouldn’t be alone, so pulling something like this off could check the box I noted earlier about trading top prospects. Then Bellinger goes to Houston or the Yankees and Isaac Paredes goes somewhere else, allowing the Cubs to promote Owen Caissie and Matt Shaw. I know most of you are upset about the Cubs sitting out the top of the market, but would you feel better about it if they acquired Crohet while also making room for at least two top prospects and then adding at least one more high-leverage bullpen arm?

Based on how they played for most of the second half and the potential for more consistent offensive performance, we’re talking about a group that could easily reach that 90-win threshold Counsell and Hoyer have mentioned. Or the pitchers all get hurt, the prospects flop, and the Cubs are looking up at the Pirates and Reds. Failing to flex their financial might means the Cubs absolutely have to break from their typical conservative approach with some big trades to properly set themselves up for sustained success.

Can they pull that off? We’re about to find out.