Cubs Far From Favorites, Still Viewed as ‘Serious Players’ for Rōki Sasaki
We’re early in a month-long quiet period for Japanese pitcher Rōki Sasaki, who has been posted and must now wait for the next international signing period to open on January 15 before he can join his new team. For those who haven’t been following all the details, Sasaki’s relative youth (he just turned 23 in November) and lack of NPB experience (six seasons) means he’s considered an international amateur. That means he is subject to bonus pool restrictions and minor-league contractual limits, making him something like 30 times cheaper than countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
So, no, the Cubs can’t use any of the payroll savings from the Cody Bellinger trade to lure Sasaki. Nor can they simply bid the highest on his posting fee like it used to be in the olden days of Yu Darvish. Every team has the opportunity to negotiate with Sasaki and it’s unlikely the bonus pools will factor very heavily given his desire to forego literally hundreds of millions of dollars to jump to MLB two years early. This is very much like when Shohei Ohtani came over, which is kind of ironic given how that eventually played out.
The thinking is that the Dodgers are the overwhelming favorite to land Sasaki because they already boast Ohtani and Yamamoto. Having a rotation with three members of Team Japan would be pretty wild, huh? But let’s not forget how Ohtani initially opted to sign with the Angels for a variety of reasons, one of which may have been maintaining a lower profile as he adjusted to a new culture and league.
Sasaki could be seeking more of the same, which could rule the Dodgers out. Or perhaps it’s the opposite since playing alongside two other Japanese superstars would actually keep a lot of the spotlight off of him. The best of both worlds could be in San Diego, where the pace is a little slower and Darvish resides as the godfather of Japanese players. Among MLB executives polled by MLB Pipeline earlier this month about Sasaki’s landing spot, 11 named the Dodgers and seven went with the Padres.
The Giants and Rangers each got votes as well, but Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo believes the Mariners could be a dark horse due to their young rotation and penchant for developing pitchers. The market features much less pressure, plus they’ve got Ichiro Suzuki as a tremendous ambassador. Seattle already has what might be the best and deepest rotation in baseball, and replacing Luis Castillo with Sasaki might give them the cheapest as well.
While that would also mean creating a good deal of uncertainty, Castillo earns more than his four rotation-mates combined and could fetch a solid return given his three years of control and the exorbitant cost of free-agent pitching. The Cubs have been involved in talks with the M’s on that front, though I’d suspect anything involving Castillo will play out following Sasaki’s decision as the market corrects a bit.
Speaking of which, the Cubs are still viewed as “serious players” for Sasaki following their addition of Kyle Tucker to a roster that includes Shōta Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki. There was a little concern during the Winter Meetings that Suzuki might be inclined to force a trade rather than remain at DH, and that’s before the Cubs added a dude who will definitely be in right field on a regular basis. Since Suzuki and Sasaki are both represented by Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, the fear was that any animosity could hamper the Cubs’ pursuit of the hard-throwing righty.
That appears to be even more overblown than the idea that Scott Boras will never do business with the Yankees again, as no legit agent would rule out options for his clients. Even though the Cubs do feel like a longshot, they’ve won out from that position in the past. Like with Suzuki, who visited Chicago in the middle of winter after having just spent time in San Diego. If he still signed after that, it’s clear Jed Hoyer and his front office know how to make a sales pitch.
Based on his posting date, Sasaki has until January 23 to sign with an MLB team. Having only eight days might seem like too little time, but meetings and negotiations can still take place in the interim. Maybe CubsCon (Jan 17-19) can feature the announcement of a new pitcher from Japan for the second year in a row.