Quantifying Hope: Cubs Boast Nearly 69% Postseason Odds, 16.9% to Clinch Bye
The Cubs have weathered what has been the toughest schedule in MLB by a wide margin with tremendous aplomb, entering the weekend with a 16-10 record that ensures they’ll enter May on the right side of the .500 mark. They can be much better if they take care of business against the Phillies and Pirates to close out the month, at which point the battle of attrition really begins. Justin Steele‘s loss for the season headlines a series of early bumps and bruises that could conspire to sap some of this squad’s stamina through the summer.
Closer Ryan Pressly has been scraping by on little more than guile, and he just had his knee drained earlier in the week. Seiya Suzuki has battled a sore wrist that has kept him out of the lineup for several days already, prompting Craig Counsell to put the aging Justin Turner and his flagging bat speed in the three-hole repeatedly. You already know the stove is hot, Craig. Why the hell do you keep touching it?
That and a leaky bullpen are what led ESPN to place the Cubs seventh in their most recent power rankings. Wanna guess who’s first? The Dodgers, who just left Wrigley with their tails between their legs. Then it’s the Padres, Mets, Yankees, Giants, and Diamondbacks. I thought these things were supposed to be about who’s playing the best right now. Alas…
When it comes to the future, FanGraphs like the Cubs’ odds of making the postseason. My computer tells me this is the 69th one of these playoff odds charts I’ve downloaded, which is coincidental if you round up the percentage it shows for the North Siders. They have a little better than a 61% chance to win the division and a 16.9% chance to clinch a bye, which would be nice. While a three-game cushion in late April is hardly cause for celebration, the Cubs really do appear to be built to last behind an offense capable of beating anyone.
We’ll really see this thing take shape over the next month, as the Cubs will finally start playing other teams from the NL Central. Of course, it’ll be another two months before they will have played as many games within their own division as they have already against the NL West. And that’s not even counting series against the Giants and Rockies in May, which means it’ll take until July 28 for the Cubs to have played more against the Central. That’s just dumb.
What’s not dumb is stacking wins. Even if they aren’t rattling off long winning streaks, their ability to bounce back after bad games and rough innings has defined the Cubs to this point. Continuing to take two games in each series more often than not will keep them atop the division and in position to make a little noise in October.
