Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/9/25): Busch Batting Cleanup, Kelly Behind Plate, Taillon Tossing

The Cubs dumped two games in a row to the Giants, one because Ryan Pressly couldn’t retire any batters and the other because the offense forgot how to score runs. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that we’ve seen this team bounce back quite nicely from previous embarrassing losses and cold stretches. They’ve also played their best baseball in series openers, so maybe Friday night in Queens will follow suit.

Jameson Taillon has pitched very well since giving up six runs in his season debut, and he has now held opponents to two or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. Both his strikeout and walk rates are below his career norms, but he’s avoiding hard contact and any mistakes have been mitigated by that impeccable command. Previously a big fastball/slider/sweeper guy, Taillon has changed things up a little since working with Tread Athletics.

Despite a lack of elite velocity, Taillon is throwing his four-seam 43% of the time, more than 10 points higher than the last two years. He’s also getting better results than ever, with a career-best eight inches of tail helping him to avoid barrels. The other revelation is a changeup that has gotten 2.4 runs of value despite making up less than 10% of his repertoire. That’s a direct product of Tread training, as they switched him to a kick-change.

The result is a great deal more depth and run, giving him an extra 4-5 inches of vertical drop with an inch or so more glove-side tail. How great would it be to see Ben Brown find that same confidence in his changeup? In the meantime, we’ll see whether Taillon can continue his dominance of this Mets lineup. Over a combined 74 at-bats, he’s holding them to a .162/.173/.311 slash with three homers and 20 strikeouts to one walk. Juan Soto is 1-for-11 with five strikeouts against Taillon so far.

Even if Taillon repeats that success, the bats need to provide him with a little support. Ian Happ leads off in left, Kyle Tucker is in right, Seiya Suzuki is the DH, and Michael Busch is at first. Carson Kelly bats fifth at catcher, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Nico Hoerner is hitting seventh playing second, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Nicky Lopez is playing third.

They’re facing Clay Holmes, another Tread product who is also throwing a very effective kick-change as part of an overhauled repertoire meant to aid his transition to the rotation. The former Yankees closer used to throw 80% sinkers and threw only sinker/slider/sweeper for the previous three seasons, but now he’s incorporated a change, cutter, and four-seam. This is as drastic a shift as I have ever seen doing these breakdowns, and the impressive part is that it’s working.

Holmes enters his eighth start of the season with a 2.95 ERA that is right in line with all of his expected metrics, and he’s doing it with a .333 BABIP against that says he might be slightly unlucky. His strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks, but the real key is that he hasn’t allowed a homer yet. That’s interesting because his grounder rate is down to 51.5% against a 65% career average, which would normally lead to more fly balls leaving the yard.

Though he is clearly giving up more contact in the air, he’s always been good at staying away from barrels. That bowling ball sinker is still very effective, but it’s down a full three ticks from previous seasons because he’s got to conserve energy for longer outings. I wonder if that’ll catch up with him at some point or if the expanded repertoire ensures he can stay ahead of any velocity-based concerns.

Holmes has been very successful against this Cubs roster, though it’s hard to know how to carry those past results forward given his marked changes. His strikeouts have been down the last two games and he should allow his share of contact, so the Cubs may have to play a little station-to-station ball tonight. I like this matchup of crafty Tread guys, and I think it could come down to which bullpen pitches best.

First pitch is at 6:10pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 9, 2025