Matt Shaw’s Power Stroke Returning, Seiya Suzuki Much Better with RISP

Neither of these topics stood out as being particularly worthy of stand-alone posts, so I figured I’d put them together quickly ahead of Friday’s game. With the Cubs’ offense hitting a bit of a rough patch after a scorching start, there’s been a lot of talk about how they can right the ship or at least patch a hole or two. The most obvious of those spots is at third base, where Craig Counsell has gotten -0.9 fWAR and a 47 wRC+ so far.

Those marks are both 29th in MLB, with only Milwaukee’s hot corner (-1.1, 26) getting worse production. Of the six players the Cubs have used at third base this season, only one has produced positive WAR. Anyone want to guess who that is? If you said Justin Turner, give yourself a gold star and a pat on the back. Of course, the only reason he’s at 0.1 is that he stayed in Tuesday’s game at third after pinch-hitting for Nicky Lopez, then walked it off with a two-run double.

Jon Berti started out well and is slightly better than replacement level if you strip out his work at third, but he’s at -0.3 fWAR there now and shouldn’t be playing regularly. Lopez has drawn a few walks and can pick it on defense, he’s just got zero power and likewise can’t be an everyday answer. Enter Matt Shaw, who technically has the worst results of anyone so far.

After being optioned to Triple-A to make some adjustments to his swing, however, Shaw appears to have rediscovered his power stroke. He went 1-for-17 to start his Iowa stint, then went 12-for-22 to boost his average to .333 for a brief period. Some worried that he was hitting the ball on the ground too frequently, though that seemed like a function of either trying to do something different with his swing or just being more aggressive early in counts.

Part of his issue in Chicago was that he’d sped up his timing to catch up to MLB velocity, which he achieved by narrowing his stance a little and starting a tick earlier. That got him off-balance and made him a little more robotic, which led to him getting in his head a little and falling behind early. Then he was guessing at pitches and taking strikes while waving at balls. The physical and mental aspects of hitting are intertwined, and Shaw’s issues with both fed one another.

Shaw homered twice for the I-Cubs on Thursday, the second of which was a walk-off shot, and now has four homers since being demoted. His glove looked solid in the bigs and his bat may have come back around, so it might be a good idea for the Cubs to give him another shot here soon.

Matt Shaw walks it off for the @IowaCubs, his second homer of the game! pic.twitter.com/jts23zU3Fs

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) May 15, 2025

Seiya Suzuki has been getting another shot to play the outfield with Ian Happ on the shelf, and he’s acquitted himself quite well in left field. He continues to mash too, hitting his team-leading 11th home run against the Marlins on Thursday. I have no doubt someone out there tried to diminish that accomplishment by saying it didn’t matter because there was no one on or that the Cubs were losing.

It’s wild how skewed the narrative is surrounding Suzuki, especially when his performance has run almost directly contrary to it. What if I told you he is slashing just .209/.253/.465 with the bases empty and .273/.345/.558 with men on? I’d say being 60-100 points better in those categories is a really good thing, especially when it matters more with runners on base.

Okay, sure, but he probably sucks with runners in scoring position. Right?

Well, not quite. When hitting with RISP, Suzuki is slashing .340/.418/.617 with a 186 wRC+ this season. That’s 36% higher than with runners on in general and 89 points better than with bases empty. Could he stand to be hitting a little better than .239 so far? Sure, but he’s hitting much better in situations that really call for it. A lot of y’all need to stop staring at individual trees so you can get a wider view of the forest.