Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/23/25): Happ Leads Off, Shaw at 3B, Boyd Bump Day

The Cubs are playing the Reds for the first time this season, leaving the Cardinals as the only divisional opponent left to face. The Rockies come to Wrigley on Monday, which means the Cubs will have played every NL West opponent, three of them at least twice, before completing the Central circuit. So dumb. Though it’s hard to call this series pivotal, the Reds have played the Cubs very well in recent seasons.

After dominating the matchup from 2015-18, going 51-25, the Cubs are 44-49 against Cincy over the last six seasons. That includes an 11-15 mark over the last two years, with some of those losses possibly keeping the Cubs out of the postseason. Having Terry Francona at ther helm should improve the Reds’ odds a bit, so the Cubs can ill afford to take it easy in what should be yet another de facto home game.

Matthew Boyd is on the bump looking to tie his high-water mark for wins in the last six years. His career best is nine wins, which he set in both 2018 and ’19 with the Tigers, so it’s possible Boyd will break that early in the second half. He’s getting better results on his fastball than ever before, and we’re talking about a wide margin between this season and any previous campaign.

As great as that pitch has been, though, he’s probably going to need to get more from his slider and changeup in particular. Those have both generated decidedly negative value and could be the difference between Boyd regressing or improving as the season goes along. The lefty has gone in his last three starts and six of nine overall, never allowing more than three earned runs, so he should keep his team in the game.

Ian Happ is leading off in left, followed by Kyle Tucker at DH again and Seiya Suzuki in right. Pete Crow-Armstrong cleans up in center, Carson Kelly is the catcher, Michael Busch is at first, and Dansby Swanson is the shortstop. Nico Hoerner plays second and Matt Shaw is at third.

They’re facing hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene, who is coming off the IL to make his first start in just over two weeks. Prior to suffering a groin strain, the 25-year-old — I had to double-check his age because this is his fourth season with the Reds — was displaying the highest velocity of his career. We’re talking a 99.2 mph average fastball that routinely hits triple digits. Green is also throwing it more than ever, nearly 60% of the time, which makes sense when it’s so effective.

His 88 mph slider is also working better than in the past, leading him to some of the best strikeout, whiff, and chase rates in the game. You’d think a guy who throws like that would walk a lot of batters, but Greene’s 4.5% walk rate puts him in the 91st percentile there. He throws strikes at a 58.4% clip, more than all but four of the 119 MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings under their belts, and he’s gotten away with it because the stuff is so good.

The only issue there is that Greene isn’t a super deceptive guy, preferring instead to blow the heater by people. His fastball doesn’t have exceptional qualities in terms of cut, run, or ride, so it can get turned around in a hurry when hitters barrel it up. And they do that pretty frequently, as he is in the 36th percentile or worse for hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity. He also gives up a lot of contact in the air, so homers can be an issue.

Most of those have come from left-handed batters, which Greene has seen more of this season than their right-handed counterparts. He’s an equal opportunity thrower, using his two primary pitches to batters on both sides, though he does favor the slider a little more when facing righties. The same is true for the splitter he throws very sparingly.

Righties have had less success against him so far this year, however, Greene’s career splits hold a decent reverse trend. That would explain why Suzuki has two homers and a 1.615 OPS against him. Happ, who traditionally crushes Reds pitching, carries just a .154 average but has an .814 OPS from a homer and a double. I think we’re looking at one of two scenarios tonight: Greene either shoves or he’ll be shelled.

I’d love to say it’ll be the former, but I don’t see that happening. Now I’ll just hope karma proves me wrong. First pitch is at 5:40pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

Start of three in Cincy.

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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 23, 2025