Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Incredible Performance Fueling New Extension Rumors
Pete Crow-Armstrong got off to a slow start this season, which may have prompted the Cubs to bring a lowball extension offer to the table. While it probably wasn’t solely a matter of capitalizing on his paltry production, the timing didn’t make much sense for a player who has since made it look laughable.
Jon Heyman told 670 The Score’s Mully & Haugh he heard the Cubs’ offer was around $66 million, and previous reports put it at $75 million if multiple club options were exercised. While we don’t know the exact structure of the deal, it stands to reason that the guarantee was far less than it will take to get PCA to give up some of his free agency.
The player and his reps want to maximize his value, particularly now that he’s playing at an MVP level, and the Cubs want to get a discount on free-agent years by paying more for pre-arbitration and arb years. Heyman believes the Cubs need to buy out at least one year of free agency, if not two, though that feels light. He may even be conflating the structures of a few other recent extensions.
“They have had some talks since then, and they are still trying,” Heyman said. “That said, it’s going to be that much more difficult. While he probably — I’m guessing now — while he might have signed for $90 million earlier, maybe it’d be $140 million now or something. The price is going up exponentially.”
He cited Lawrence Butler (7 years, $65.5M) and Ezequiel Tovar (7, $63.5M) as templates for the Cubs’ first offer, which makes sense, but the hypothetical number above looks like Jackson Merrill with far less control. We covered that extension and the one the Red Sox worked out with Kristian Campbell as potential precedents for a PCA deal, so take a look at that if you’d like more context.
Merrill’s nine-year, $135 million contract includes a club option for 2035, meaning the Padres bought out at least five years of free agency. Boston guaranteed Campbell $60 million over eight years with two club options averaging $20 million apiece, so they bought out two years of free agency with options for two more. While Heyman is correct that the price for PCA has gone up a great deal, the Cubs would have to be getting a lot more than two extra years for a $140 million guarantee.
Something between what Merrill and Campbell got probably makes a little more sense, particularly since the former is ridiculously club-friendly in terms of control. I’d put a realistic option at a floor of eight years, $100 million with two club options for $20-25 million apiece. The Cubs might need to get up to a $120 million guarantee to match Merrill’s AAV, plus they’d almost certainly have to include various incentives and escalators. For instance, Merrill can earn up to $204 million by reaching certain plate appearance thresholds.
Maybe it’s eight years, $120 million with one club option for $20 million and another for $25 million to get it to a potential total of 10 years, $165 million. Throw in some sweeteners for PAs and maybe Gold Gloves and/or MVP finishes, and you’ve got something that could exceed $200 million. I think that would get it done, plus it’d still offer great value to the club from the low guaranteed AAV well into the future. And if PCA ends up maxing it out, that just means his production has remained strong.
This is really just some cocktail napkin stuff, so your mileage may vary when it comes to the particulars. Anything close to what I laid out above feels like a no-brainer; it’s just a matter of both sides wanting to get something done. My parting thought is that this by no means precludes the Cubs from making a monster offer to Kyle Tucker.
