Maybe featuring the Brewers here will jinx them. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

The Rundown: Cubs Need Some Old-Fashioned Coconut Straightening, Brewers Continue Unprecedented Run, Pohlad Family Keeping Twins

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterAugust 13, 2025

“A summer’s disregard, a broken bottle top, and one man’s soul. They follow each other on the wind, ya know, ’cause they’ve got nowhere to go.” – Man in the Mirror by Michael Jackson

Carter Hawkins didn’t make many fans when he spoke to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers once the dust had settled after this year’s trade deadline. At best, he sounded like so many GMs who simply run lockstep with the C-suite executives. At worst, he sounded completely disconnected from the Cubs’ attempts to hold off the Brewers.

“It’s hard when you see other teams you’re competing with get really good players, but those aren’t decisions you’re making in the moment,” Hawkins said. “They’re decisions you’re making over the course of the week and month. It takes some discipline, especially in a moment when you see things moving that way, but we were able to stick to our approach and felt really good about the adds we were able to make.

“Teams are trying to find that guy that can lock down the eighth or ninth inning, but that also costs a lot. That costs a lot of future wins. We have a responsibility to the 2025 Cubs but also the 2032 Cubs. That’s not always popular in the moment, but it’s decisions we have to make.”

The Cubs have five wins in 13 games after losing to the Blue Jays Tuesday night. Almost incredibly, they’ve gone from tied atop the division to trailing the runaway Brewers by 7.5 games since. That’s the largest division lead in the majors.

I don’t take much issue with the general manager’s statement because I understand what he means, and it’s centered on a front office philosophy that isn’t going to change. Jed Hoyer and his entourage are never going to stop threading the needle because challenging for the lowest-seeded playoff berth is always better than retooling. It’s a data-driven decision-making process that would endear any executive to an ownership group that amassed its fortune by trading derivative securities. You maximize profits by minimizing long-term risk. Winning a championship becomes nothing more than a serendipitous happenstance when a good-but-not-great team gets hot at the right time.

That strategy comes with a couple of potential red flags, however. Pushing the boundaries of data-driven applications can sometimes stagnate player development. Additionally, as front offices become more homogenous in their analysis, there is a risk of groupthink where dissenting opinions are not adequately considered, as Evan points out above. The part we often overlook is that Chicago’s front office is essentially leveling the playing field for the four small-to-mid-market teams that share the NL Central.

Let’s use the refuse-to-lose Brewers as an example. No metric exists that could have predicted Andrew Vaughn — a presumably failed No. 3 overall pick — would become the monster that has mashed his way into the NL MVP race. If one did, teams would have lined up 29-deep to poach him from the White Sox. The same goes for starter Quinn Priester. Vaughn was acquired from the White Sox for Aaron Civale and cash. The Brewers gave the Red Sox minor leaguers Yophery Rodríguez (No. 21 in Boston’s system) and John Holobetz (unranked) for Priester.

Do you know how Milwaukee tapped into Vaughn’s massive upside?

“Don’t try to do too much,” manager Pat Murphy told him. “Don’t try to be too smart and don’t try to figure it all out. Just see it and hit it. If you swing at balls [outside the strike zone], you’ll be back at Triple-A. Otherwise, we’re not touching your swing. Get your coconut straight.”

Priester was asked to change his pitch sequencing and to journal his successes and failures to better track his progress. Why rely on state-of-the-art analytic software when you can hand out homework assignments instead?

The Cubs, who have been slumping for nearly a month, could use a little coconut straightening and afterschool tutoring. They have the look and feel of a team that’s afraid to make mistakes. The Brewers, meanwhile, are playing with a reckless abandon that not only eschews fear, but spits in its face. Sure, they’ve been overly lucky, and they’ve caught teams going through their worst stretches of the season. Then again, luck is simply embracing good fortune whenever it intersects your path.

The epitaph for this season may very well be Hawkins’ quote about the expected state of the franchise seven years into the future. He and Hoyer have been so busy trying to thread the needle and protect their prospects that they gave little consideration to the Brewers, who finished 10 games ahead of Chicago last year, and who annually best the Cubs despite much lower payrolls and, at least according to valuation algorithms, significantly less talent.

Cubs News & Notes

Ball Four

Milwaukee even catches Paul Skenes at his worst moments. They’ve certainly got his number.

Central Intelligence

How About That!

The Twins will not be sold outside of the Pohlad family after all.

Steven Kwan has some advice for anybody who is told they’re not good enough to be a major leaguer.

Top pitching prospect Nolan McLean will make his big league debut with the Mets on Saturday.

Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman are expected to exercise their opt-outs and enter free agency once this season has ended.

Extra Innings 

Kyle Tucker attempts to crack a coconut.

They Said It

  • “I feel like we’re giving ourselves opportunities throughout the game and just not able to capitalize right now. It’s one of those things is all it really takes is one swing and everyone gets going as a group. There’s a lot of different buttons to press. We’ve had plenty of conversations, whether it’s in the hitters’ meetings or throughout the day when we’re in here. Guys love being at the field and putting in the work to get better. There’s dinners, flights, the whole thing. Maybe there’s gotta be a different button that gets pressed.” – Dansby Swanson

Wednesday Walk-Up Song

“Don’t let the tears linger on inside now because it’s sure time you gained control.”

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterAugust 13, 2025
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