Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/3/25): Hoerner Leads Off, Santana DH, Horton Hurling
The Cubs have won the first two games of this series by the slimmest of margins, but the standings look the same as they would if they’d beaten the Braves in blowouts. So while you’d rather turn more games over to middle relievers in the late innings, solidifying playoff position is what matters most. It would still be a good idea, however, to provide a little more leeway for Cade Horton to work shorter outings.
Horton has been so good in the second half that giving up two runs to the Rockies in a weekend win actually looks bad by comparison. After all, he’d only given up two total runs across his previous seven starts combined. The Rookie of the Year frontrunner will have a chance to bolster his campaign tonight against an offense that hasn’t lived up to expectations.
Continuing to work efficiently is a must for Horton, who should exceed 100 innings tonight. He’s already at 98.2 IP at the big league level alone, 10 more than he’s ever pitched in any previous season of his life, and he’s nearing 130 when you add in his Triple-A work. This is where getting Michael Soroka back to serve as either a sixth starter or long reliever will help.
The Cubs had won 13 straight games in which they’d scored at least four runs, a streak that ended with their 5-6 walk-off loss to the Rockies on the last day of August. They’ve got a new streak going to open September, though their propensity for playing 4-3 games has gotten old. Last night was their sixth such score in the last 17 games and fourth in the last nine games, but they were only on the losing end of one (August 28 in SF).
What I’m saying is that scoring five runs, ideally more, might make things a little less stressful. That starts with Nico Hoerner at second base and staying in the leadoff spot even with a righty on the mound. Michael Busch plays first and bats second with Kyle Tucker resting his calf, then it’s Seiya Suzuki in right and Ian Happ cleaning up in left. Carlos Santana is the DH, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Willi Castro is in center. Matt Shaw plays third and Reese McGuire does the catching.
They’re up against righty Bryce Elder, whose name is misleading because he’s only 26 years old. Elder is in his fourth big-league season and has worked almost exclusively as a starter, with just one relief appearance as a rookie in 2022. He’s bounced between Triple-A and the majors a few times to work through issues with hittability, and he’s probably gotten a little more leeway than most given the Braves’ pitching injuries.
Though Elder has always done a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground with his sinker/slider mix, he will leave a lot of balls over the plate to be tagged. Despite its bowling-ball qualities, that 91 mph sinker often leaks right into the nitro zone. The same is true for the 84 mph slider that frequently lacks enough horizontal movement to carry it away from barrels.
Elder also has a 92-93 mph four-seam and an 86 mph changeup, both of which are thrown more heavily to left-handed batters. After pitching to almost even splits in the past, the numbers have skewed heavily toward reverse this season. Elder is giving up a .297/.346/.502 slash to right-handed hitters, though that’s mainly from some very poor outings against them at home. The road numbers are more traditional.
We are looking yet again at a very favorable matchup for the Cubs, even considering the way Elder has dominated them previously. Over a total of 24 at-bats, this group is batting .167 with a .634 OPS and just one homer (Swanson). I think we’ll see those numbers improve significantly this evening.
First pitch is at 6:40pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
