Cade Horton Strengthens ROY Case with Another Sterling Performance

You know you’re having a good 10-game stretch when giving up one run over six-plus innings actually raises your ERA over that period. Cade Horton only struck out two Braves, but he gave up just four hits and didn’t walk any to prolong a run that has sent him to the top of the National League’s rookie class. Oddsmakers installed Horton as the favorite for the award even before his earlier no-hit effort against the Braves, but a recent poll of MLB.com experts had him second to Atlanta catcher Drake Baldwin.

Drake Baldwin continues to impress and leads the National League Rookie of the Year poll! 💪 pic.twitter.com/Ul8WqfAzjL

— MLB (@MLB) September 9, 2025

“It’s really cool, but it’s not the end of the world,” Horton told reporters when asked after the game about the race. ” I would rather win a World Series than win Rookie of the Year. So just continuing to block out that stuff, and find ways to go out there every fifth day and give our team a chance to win.”

While it’s not a mano a mano award, Horton certainly hasn’t hurt his case by holding Baldwin to 0-for-5 with a strikeout over his last two starts. The righty’s 10 wins lead all rookie pitchers and his 2.70 ERA is now 11th among all MLB pitchers with at least 100 innings. That last facet is important, as many see Horton’s late(ish) debut as a mark against him.

I don’t make the rules, written or otherwise, but I’d say being in the top 10 for innings pitched among all rookie pitchers at this point in the season gives him a viable body of work. Plus, Horton’s got the momentum of a Jake Arrieta-esque second half to bolster his case. Horton is 7-1 with a 0.84 ERA since the break, leading all MLB pitchers on both fronts. Arrieta, you may recall, blew the doors off his competition with a 12-1 record and a 0.75 ERA down the stretch in 2015.

Horton may have also created just enough force to escape the gravity of his workload limit by throwing 87 pitches, his most in a start since the break. It looked like Craig Counsell would pull his starter after the 6th, which he closed out with his 75th pitch, but the Braves had two righties due up in the first three batters of the following frame. A chance to complete the 7th fell by the wayside when Nico Hoerner biffed a Michael Harris II ground, prompting Counsell to signal for reliever Andrew Kittredge.

A lot of folks may be retroactively upset about Horton being allowed to go deeper in this one when he was pulled four outs and 12 pitches earlier during a no-hit bid just six days ago, especially when the Cubs ended up losing that game. As I see it, though, the team still did the right thing. As minimal as it might seem, throwing 75 pitches over five innings isn’t the same as doing so over six. What’s more, Horton’s 19 pitches in the 5th were the most he’d thrown in any inning that game.

This isn’t a situation in which Counsell and the Cubs are just throwing darts at the board to determine how many pitches or innings Horton will throw in a given game. They’re monitoring his acute-to-chronic workload and making adjustments in real time based on his performance. I believe they even had Caleb Thielbar warming at the end of the 6th before choosing to send Horton, which makes sense because two of the batters that inning — Matt Olson and Baldwin — were left-handed hitters.

Ozzie Albies was the second batter in the 6th and is a switch-hitter, but he’s actually much better batting from the right side. If anything, Thielbar might have been insurance against Horton not retiring one of the first two. Instead, the rookie got all three and ended the inning on a weak grounder from his top competition for NL Rookie of the Year.

As for those odds, ESPN BET and DraftKings now have Horton even further out front at -155 and -130, respectively. I still say Horton winning would chafe the Cubs’ front office more than a little bit because they’d miss out on a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick while also seeing Horton granted a full year of service, which is exactly what happened with Paul Skenes and the Pirates last year. But hey, at least they can recoup that pick when Kyle Tucker turns down the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

That’s a topic for another time, but it sure feels like the team is distancing itself from the idea of re-signing Tucker this offseason. This latest IL snafu and the way it’s been communicated, both explicitly and through less overt means, indicate a tonal shift to me. Or maybe I’m just trying to read tea leaves, not realizing they’re actually coffee grounds.

In any case, Horton looks for all the world like the presumptive top first-year player in his league. What’s more, he looks like the kind of ace who could spearhead a playoff rotation this year and into the future.