Reds Control Postseason Destiny, Brewers Place Brandon Woodruff on IL
The Cubs are off today, so I wanted to take a few moments to talk about the fates of two other NL Central teams with just six games left on the schedule. Sweeping the Cubs in Cincinnati pushed the Reds to four games over .500 and into a tie with the Mets, over whom they own the tiebreaker. That means the team from the Queen City simply keeping pace with the team from Queens will see Terry Francona guiding his team to October baseball.
They’re doing it behind one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, with an aggregate 118 ERA+ (adjusted for ballpark where 100 is average and bigger is better) that leads MLB and an 88 ERA- (100 is average, smaller is better) that is tied for third. The bad news is that Milwaukee is third in ERA+ (116) and tied for first in ERA- (86), but we’ll get to that in just a bit.
Even though they’re not much of a power-hitting team, the Reds have gotten hot at the right time behind a staff that can keep them in ballgames when the temperature gets turned up. While I doubt they’ll be able to do much of anything against the Dodgers in LA, it sure would be nice to see them bounce the Mets out of the playoff picture.
Okay, back to the Brewers and their depleted staff. Ace Brandon Woodruff has been placed on the 15-day IL with a “moderate” right lat strain that will keep him out until at least the start of the NLDS. Even if Woodruff is able to avoid surgery, the typical recovery timeline for a Grade 2 strain can take over three months. And given how the righty indicated he’d been dealing with shoulder issues since June or July, this doesn’t sound like something that will clear up.
Woodruff told reporters on Sunday that he had yet to talk with the famed Dr. Keith Meister, who performed surgery on the righty’s shoulder nearly two years ago. He had already met with doctors in St. Louis, so getting a second opinion adds further credence to the idea that this won’t be a minimum stay. That’s bad news for the Brewers, but good news for their opponents.
Though Freddy Peralta‘s 2.65 ERA leads Milwaukee’s rotation, Woodruff is better across all the expected marks while boasting better strikeout and walk rates. With Woodruff out, the Brewers will need to determine who throws in the postseason after Peralta and Quinn Priester. Jose Quintana would probably be the choice, but he’s on the IL with a left calf strain. No word on whether he left the team to seek treatment from his own personal physical therapist, but having his first start in three weeks or so come in a playoff series might not be wise.
Jacob Misiorowski earned a trip to the All-Star Game after just five MLB starts and would have seemed like an obvious choice to pitch in big games before proving that not all rookies can be Cade Horton. Even though The Miz misses a lot of bats, he sprays the ball around and has had trouble going deep in games. The Brewers might prefer to let him empty the tank out of the bullpen in October, with fellow first-year player Chad Patrick getting a chance to start.
Patrick has been more consistent and should be fresh following a pair of relief appearances that helped to limit his workload down the stretch. That could be good for the Cubs, who have scored nine runs (seven earned) in two games against Patrick this season. Should the standings hold, the Brewers would get the winner of the Cubs and Padres. Between Woodruff’s absences and winning the season series, you have to think Craig Counsell is feeling pretty confident about facing his former club.
Then again, the last thing the Cubs need is to look too far ahead. That’s what it felt like they were doing in Cincy as they were unceremoniously swept out of town following a champagne celebration in Pittsburgh. You can’t win games you haven’t played yet, and the Cubs need to take care of business against the Mets and Cardinals before worrying about their playoff opponents.
