Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/23/25): Hoerner Leads Off, Santana 1B, Turner DH, Horton Starting
The Cubs won four straight last week to move to a season-high 24 games over .500 and clinch a postseason berth, then they dropped four in a row to let the Reds back into the postseason mix. Now they have to face the team the Reds just passed — technically, since Cincy owns the tiebreaker — in the struggling Mets. Craig Counsell‘s team has looked content to merely tread water, which may not be enough against a desperate team.
It doesn’t help that the Brewers have turned on cruise control for the rest of the season, which means they don’t care to put up much of a fight against the Padres. With the Cubs’ Wild Card lead at just 2.5 games entering this series, more poor play could mean fighting for home field over the final weekend of the season. Conversely, sweeping the Mets and/or getting some help from the Brewers means the Cubs could have their spot on ice before the Cardinals come to town.
There’s no better man to get things started than Cade Horton, who is 8-1 with a 0.93 ERA in the second half. Believe it or not, he’s the only Cubs starter with a sub-4.00 ERA since the break. The Cubs went with a six-man rotation the last time through and should do so again to keep Horton on extra rest through what should be a Game 1 Wild Card series start. Keeping him on regular rest would see him starting the last game of the season and then missing the first playoff series.
Horton’s MLB debut came against the Mets on May 10, and that’s when we first saw his changeup. He only threw it once to strike out Juan Soto, but it’s become a much bigger part of his repertoire since. As long as Horton continues to pound the zone aggressively, he should leave his team with a solid opportunity to make things happen offensively.
The Cubs are once again going with eight right-handed hitters against a southpaw, starting with Nico Hoerner at second base and Ian Happ in left. Seiya Suzuki is in right, Carson Kelly is behind the dish, Carlos Santana is at first, and Dansby Swanson is the shortstop. Justin Turner is the DH, Matt Shaw is at third, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center.
They are facing lefty David Peterson, whose performance over parts of five seasons has been confounding. His ERA has fluctuated by well over a run — and by more than two — each season, and his strikeout rates rose tremendously in 2021-23 before falling off over the last two years. As you can probably imagine, his home-run rates and BABIP numbers have varied wildly from season to season as well.
Health issues played a role in some of that, with a torn labrum in his left hip limiting him to 121 innings last season. The possibility that he was pitching through the issue the previous season would help to explain his poor performance, though any number of factors could have contributed. Now healthy, Peterson has already pitched a career-high 167.1 innings, 46 more than in any previous campaign.
His success comes from his sinker, change, and curveball, all of which are plus pitches. The four-seam and slider have gotten poor results, in part because his cutty 92 mph fastball doesn’t have enough juice despite his 96th-percentile extension. Peterson is one of the more extreme pitchers I’ve seen when it comes to stacking the lineup against him with right-handed hitters, as he’s faced 551 of them to just 161 lefty hitters.
That big extension has him reaching into left-handed hitters’ back pockets for uncomfortable looks, and his heavy sinker keeps the ball on the ground regardless of who’s up there. Getting lefties to hit it on the ground 58% of the time will help any pitcher get out of jams, even when he only gets a handful of those opportunities. It hasn’t helped him much against these Cubs hitters, though.
Over a total of 37 at-bats, the Cubs are slashing .270/.438/.405 against the southpaw. He has struck out 13 batters, with Swanson (6) and Happ (5) accounting for almost all of those, and hasn’t given up a homer to a member of this roster. However, Peterson has walked 11 batters and given up 10 hits. Control has always been an issue and he’s walked multiple batters in 19 of 29 starts this season, so patience may indeed be a virtue tonight.
Between that and his ability to keep the ball in the park, the Cubs may need to press the envelope when it comes to manufacturing runs. That won’t be easy against a Mets team that has done a very good job of limiting stolen bases, but Counsell has to start pulling strings like he’ll need to in October. Letting these games come to them is not an effective strategy for success over the next week and beyond.
First pitch is at 6:40pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
.@ofcwrigleyfield happy to be home.
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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 23, 2025
