Signing Alex Bregman May Top List of Cubs’ Options to Replace Kyle Tucker’s Production

Even though the Cubs aren’t yet admitting publicly that they’ll have to replace Kyle Tucker‘s production, doing so will be one of their most important tasks this winter. And while filling that void by simply re-signing Tucker to a long-term deal is technically still on the table, all signs point to the club moving in a different direction. It seems like a long time ago when they were considered by at least one very plugged-in national insider to be the unequivocal favorites to land the right fielder.

Jeff Passan said back in August that the club’s “willingness to stop” is all that would prevent them from keeping Tucker on the north side, but the tone seems to have shifted since then. Mind you, we’re not even talking about money yet. It’s not like Tucker’s reps at Excel are fielding offers the Cubs don’t want to match. Even if some of it is indeed a matter of them being scared off by any proposed figures being thrown out by Tucker’s camp, the general vibe from the Cubs for a while now has been that they’re more than happy letting him walk.

That’s based on reports that the team knew from the start this could be a rental situation — which, obviously, but the intent of that phrasing carries weight. Then you’ve got Jesse Rogers tweeting that they were never going to, and anyone who said different was wrong. That runs contrary to what Jed Hoyer maintained in his end-of-season press conference, but it appears nonetheless as though Tucker is as good as gone.

So how exactly will the Cubs replace him when that eventuality comes to pass?

“I think that might be a more specific question than I would answer, but I think that — clearly — Kyle had a huge impact on our offense this year,” Hoyer said. “And so, if he’s not here, that’s a void and we have to figure out how to replace that. But there’s a lot of different ways to do that, so I think that’ll be the focus.

“But yes, I think there’s no question that if you don’t retain a player of that caliber, then you have to replace those wins and that WAR in some other ways. And I think that’s something we’ll be really focused on, but I don’t…I think how you do that, I think can take many different shapes.”

A lot of fans are advocating for some combination of Owen Caissie, Moisés Ballesteros, and Kevin Alcántara to take over at DH and/or right field. As fun as it is to see young players step into the limelight, we’re talking about a guy who has posted at least 4.2 fWAR in each of the last five seasons despite injury issues in 2024 and this year. Only Nico Hoerner (4.8) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (5.4) eclipsed Tucker’s 4.5 mark, and that was due in large part to their elite defense.

Then you’ve got Tucker’s 136 wRC+, which was bested only by the 140 put up by Michael Busch. We’re not talking about a replacement-level player, so counting on rookies to have the same impact would not be wise. No, if the Cubs are serious about building upon the foundation they’ve established, they’re either going to need to spend serious money or trade some of those young guys.

Chief among their options in free agency is Alex Bregman, a player they pursued this offseason before he went to Boston on what amounted to a prove-it deal with a bigger AAV and an earlier opt-out. The Cubs reportedly offered Bregman a four-year deal worth something in the $100-120 million range, which was a year longer than his Red Sox deal and with the initial opt-out after the second year rather than the first.

“Ultimately, I feel like we made a strong offer,” a deflated-looking Hoyer said at the start of spring training. “But clearly it wasn’t enough and again, when you’re in free agency, most of the time a player goes to the highest bid. The Red Sox got a great player. They were aggressive and kudos to them, they got a great player. But I’m glad that we were able…given where we are with our budget right now, I’m glad that we were able to pursue it and, like I said, I’m thankful that we were able to.”

Bregman has indeed opted out of his contract in Boston and will hit free agency again ahead of his age-32 season with what Spotrac projects as a value of four years, $112 million. Wait, that’s pretty much exactly what the Cubs offered last year. If they were comfortable with that number then, it stands to reason that they remain so. Though we can’t completely overlook Matt Shaw‘s Gold Glove-worthy defense at third base, Bregman’s more consistent offense could make him a better everyday option.

Having Shaw serve as the DH probably doesn’t make a lot of sense in that situation, so perhaps he becomes a utility player in the meantime. There’s a little concern over Bregman’s reduced power output, but his ISO remained in line with his results from the past few seasons and his 125 wRC+ was quite strong. The counting numbers were down due to a seven-week IL stint with a right quad strain, so he’d have likely been right around 25 homers otherwise.

We also looked at the possibility that Wrigley Field would be a boon to his power, something that can’t really be said for Tucker or other left-handed hitters. Of course, Bregman is nearly three years older than Tucker and doesn’t figure to have the same impact over the next four years, let alone beyond that. As imperfect a fit as I find that to be, I do like the idea of adding talented players and then figuring out what to do with them later. Hell, the Padres had at least three former shortstops playing other positions in their everyday lineup this past season.

We know for sure that the Cubs liked Bregman, and he reportedly favored the Cubs as well if all things had been equal, so it makes sense for him to be at the top of their list. As for who else they’ll look into, perhaps there’s a chance to bring back a former fan favorite who has gone on to bigger things since being non-tendered a few years back. Hoyer touted the Cubs’ treatment of players during his presser, even those who were traded away or let go.

As unlikely as a reunion may be, I see Kyle Schwarber as an ideal addition to the club. His mammoth power would not be quite as susceptible to those winds blowing in from right, and installing him as the DH would allow Hoyer to trade one or more of his top prospects for more pitching help. The drawback is that Schwarber is a one-trick pony who just performed that trick better than he ever has, which could lead to a contract the Cubs find prohibitive.

I’ve already gone a wee bit long, but I would like to touch on the possibility of pursuing Japanese Kazuma Okamoto, who is expected to be posted by the Yomiuri Giants this winter. Primarily a third baseman in his early NPB days, Okamoto has played a lot of first base and both outfield corners. He has also led NPB in homers three times, so the power is legit. Hmmm, a right-handed batter who could spell Busch at first while providing insurance as Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki enter the final year of their respective deals seems like a great fit.

Then again, there are questions about his ability to catch up to MLB velocity or play anywhere other than first at a competent level. If that’s indeed the case, and it’s possible some American execs have engaged in subterfuge in an effort to hurt Okamoto’s value for their own gain, the fit isn’t nearly as good. Hoyer and the Cubs have scouted Japan extensively for years now and certainly have a good book on Okamoto, so their pursuit — or lack thereof — will tell us how they feel.

We’re still a ways off from anything meaningful taking place, and it could be months yet before we get anything concrete on Bregman after last offseason’s extended courtship, so don’t expect any resolution in the near future.