AP Photo/Erin Hooley

The Rundown: Caissie Should Get First Shot at Replacing Tucker, Ohtani Leads Dodgers to World Series, Mariners Looking to Clinch Tonight

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 19, 2025

“Toes in the grass with our hands up high. Dreams as big as the midnight sky.” – We Are Tonight by Billy Currington

The Brewers were eliminated by the Dodgers the other night, and here’s a pictorial review of the four-game series if you want a quick recap. The back-and-forth between Brewers and Cubs fans has quickly become tiresome — and it’s even more prosaic when White Sox fans get involved — but it shouldn’t absolve Jed Hoyer. Analytics and voodoo magic aside, Chicago’s North Side Baseballers have finished behind Milwaukee in the NL Central in every season since the 2018 tiebreaker game. That has to change.

Hoyer may have to re-blueprint his roster as well. The potential loss of Kyle Tucker means finding left-handed power to replace him, but Wrigley Field tends to suppress power from that side. Hoyer should be looking for a higher-OBP player who elevates his slugging by shooting doubles into the gap that sometimes turn into triples. The threat of the home run helps and makes the lineup stronger, especially those who bat above and right below said player.

Hoyer may have that candidate in Owen Caissie, depending on how his numbers translate from Triple-A to the big leagues. Caissie bested Tucker statistically in 2025 were it an apples-to-apples comparison, but it isn’t. That’s where major league equivalencies (MLEs) factor into the equation. I’m no fan of standard deviations, but MLEs dictate that players who make the jump to the majors strike out about 4% more, walk about 1.2% less, and lose approximately one home run per 100 plate appearances. Those are averages, but it’s not always linear. Experienced pitchers adjust much more quickly than inexperienced hitters, and Matt Shaw is a great example.

That said, some young players pick things up quicker than others. Almost everybody expected Michael Busch to regress this year, yet he blossomed into a bona fide slugger with exceptional power from the left side. He hit more home runs away from Wrigley Field; however, his batting average, walk, and strikeout splits were nearly identical. I was against Busch batting leadoff, but I can see why Craig Counsell valued that type of consistency at the top of the lineup.

Hoyer should be looking for someone to play right field with a hitting approach that matches Busch’s. That’s a tall task when you consider the 27-year-old first baseman finished with a 147 OPS+ and a 140 wRC+, both elite numbers. He’s no Aaron Judge (215, 204) or Cal Raleigh (169,161), but Busch outperformed Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, and Pete Alonso. It helped that Counsell often benched Busch against tougher left-handed pitchers.

Can Caissie replace Tucker? I believe Hoyer thinks he eventually can, and here’s why: though his hit tool is still a work in progress, Caissie’s strikeout rate with Iowa improved during the second half of the season. For any faults Counsell may be saddled with, he has excelled in helping his young hitters adjust to major league pitching by exercising patience and putting them in the best position to succeed. Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong are shining examples.

What could Caissie’s 2026 season look like? A slash line of .250/.316/.424 with 15-20 home runs and 60-70 RBI seems reasonable if Counsell protects him the same way he did Busch. That means finding a capable right-handed backup will probably be Chicago’s course of action this winter. That takes Tucker and Kyle Schwarber out of the equation, but what about someone like Rob Refsnyder on a one-year deal? He’s no marquee acquisition by any means, but could DH with Seiya Suzuki taking over right field when the Cubs face tough lefties. The combination of Caissie and the 34-year-old Refsnyder would nearly match Tucker’s output.

Of course, that’s assuming Hoyer and Counsell believe Caissie is ready for full-time action with an occasional day off warranted by pitching matchups. Adding Refsnyder, who stated this weekend that he will play at least one more season, with Suzuki taking up the slack would help Caissie adjust and grow into the position. Hoyer’s biggest issue is a potential work stoppage after next season, which might severely stunt Caissie’s growth.

Cubs News & Notes

Ball Four

Imagine what it would be like if football players twice the size of the men below still honed their craft at Wrigley Field. Those are some great seats to watch a gridiron battle, though.

Central Intelligence

Playoff News & Notes

The Mariners hold a 3-2 lead in their series with the Blue Jays, and could advance to the World Series with a win in Toronto tonight.

Shohei Ohtani is arguably the greatest player in the history of the game. He could make World Series history, but as it stands, he is currently batting .105 (2-for-19) and has yet to pitch a single inning in the game’s championship round.

With three home runs and 10 strikeouts, Ohtani’s Game 4 performance against the Brewers is the single greatest feat in league championship history.

Sunday Stove

University of Tennessee baseball coach Tony Vitello has emerged as a front-runner to be the Giants’ next manager.

Some Dodgers fans are afraid the potential offseason addition of Tucker would upset the team’s chemistry.

Brandon Woodruff acknowledged that his career with the Brewers is probably over.

Milwaukee is also expected to field offers for Freddy Peralta with the idea of trading the ace for club-controlled players.

The prospect of a lockout could have a chilling effect on this year’s hot stove.

Apropos of Nothing

The Orioles may be giving up on Grayson Rodriguez, who’s had his fair share of elbow, lat, and shoulder injuries. He might be a lottery ticket if Hoyer can acquire him for relatively nothing. The 25-year-old will miss at least the first month of the season after having elbow debridement surgery, but if healthy, Rodriguez is a potential top-of-rotation pitcher with five seasons of club control.

Extra innings

Suzuki was a monster once Counsell put him back in right field. I’m sure that will be a consideration when building next year’s roster.

They Said It

  • “We were a really tight group. We really cared about winning, cared about each other and we cheered on successes for everybody. Everybody was pulling on the same rope. That’s what made this team special.” – Cade Horton
  • “I’ve been on teams where you love being around everyone and I’ve been on teams where it’s cliquey. I’ve been on some teams where if you’re walking on the road for coffee and you see someone, you turn down a different street so you don’t have to see them more outside of the field. This team is one of those where you’re just so excited to see everyone every single day and everyone’s so unique and different. I didn’t get tired of a single person in here. Showing up every single day was a blast. It’s just such a mix of personalities and human beings in here. You got loud, outgoing guys, you got quite guys, you got people who express their love of the game in so many different ways. It’s been a joy.” – Jameson Taillon

Sunday Walk-Up Song

The Cubs need to take the NL Central in 2026 and never give it back.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 19, 2025
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