The Rundown: Cubs Reportedly Close on Cease, Other Top Starters Still in Play, Tucker Visits Jays

I’ve been taking advantage of the fact that one kid is in college and the other can drive himself to school to spend a little more time in bed each morning, but I got up earlier than usual today to make breakfast. Inspired by a post from Deven Morgan of the Driveline Youth Academy, my goals were to ensure my son was properly fueled for a very long day and to build a little momentum for my own endeavors. Funny how getting decent sleep for multiple nights in a row will have you feeling more productive.

There was a time when I could go to school and then mow yards with my dad for a couple hours before heading back to school to lift weights and play basketball well into the evening. Even if my knees didn’t hate me for what I did to them in my youth, my battery now resembles that of an iPhone that’s more than two generations old. Which is to say I need to spend more time charging than being used.

Anyway, I actually take a great deal of fulfillment when it comes to helping my son navigate his journey. That’s especially true on days when his day looks like this: school until 3; a speed and agility workout with the high school baseball team until 4:15; throwing and hitting at his travel facility until 5:30; then working at Kroger until 10. I figure spending a little time whipping up some breakfast burritos is the least I can do, especially since I’ve only got a little more than a year of this left.

As for how much time I’ve got left here at CI, that remains an open question. Not that I’ve got any thoughts about stepping away, mind you, just that we’ve all got expiration dates after which we’re best not consumed. I can think of more than a few folks who’ve stayed on the shelf far too long, some of whom are still kicking around as we speak. Kinda feels like I’ve been losing my fastball lately, so I’m really hoping Jed Hoyer and Co. can do something to get me on a velo program.

Cubs Were Actually Close on Cease?

Dylan Cease would have provided the Cubs with some actual velo, what with his upper-90s fastball, but he ultimately got way out of their price range. Or did he? Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported that “the Cubs were in on Cease but bowed out as the bidding reached the $200 million mark” before the righty ultimately signed with the Blue Jays for seven years and $210 million.

While I want to make clear that I’m not questioning Sharma’s integrity in the least, there are a couple of things that make me question some of this.

Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the deferrals in Cease’s deal bring its present-day value down to $184.6 million, or $26.4 million in average annual value. So if the Cubs were indeed willing to push to $200 million, they’d have beaten the Jays’ offer. Then you’ve got the tax situation, which would be better in Canada if we were just looking at the highest tax brackets (33% vs. 37%). However, Ontario’s provincial income tax of 13.16% for those earning more than $220,000 is much higher than the flat 4.95% rate in Illinois.

Property taxes would certainly play a role as well, but probably not enough to make up for around $15 million in contract value in addition to the lower overall income taxes. So either the Cubs weren’t able to show Cease the math or they weren’t really willing to get all the way to $200 million. They’ve also been unwilling to incorporate deferred money in their offers, which strikes me as odd given the way it reduces both their actual and CBT obligations.

More than just being miserly, this makes me wonder yet again about the Ricketts family’s liquidity. People see the steadily increasing value of the team itself, not to mention all the real estate holdings surrounding Wrigley Field, and assume there’s some Scrooge McDuck vault on the far north side or wherever Tom Ricketts lays his head. But if most of that is going toward debt service or to fund additional investments, it would explain why their percentage of total revenue being spent on player payroll is near the bottom of the league.

Then there’s the reality that deferred salary isn’t just being punted 5-10 years into the future. Per the CBA, teams must set aside the present value of the total deferred amount within a two-year grace period. Those funds can be invested in cash equivalents or “readily marketable securities,” so the team is able to earn a modest profit on the money as it awaits payout. In Cease’s case, that means the Jays have to have $64 million ($9 million annually for each of the last six years) set aside by the end of the 2027 season.

Can anyone tell me what’s happening in 2027? If you guessed my 30th high school reunion, you’re correct. There’s also a very high likelihood of a lockout that will greatly impact the Cubs’ income across the board. Their significant reliance on gameday revenues means a work stoppage will have a relatively greater impact on them than most teams. Then you’ve got Marquee, which is already struggling and will really be hurting with no games, especially given the way they’ve shifted away from all the “shoulder programming” that was promised.

I’m not sure this is as much an issue of Ricketts not wanting to spend what it takes in today’s market as it is him being unable to. That’s not an excuse, just my attempt at an explanation.

Top Starters Could Still Be in Play

Even if Cease wasn’t a realistic get, Sharma noted in that same piece that “there appears to be a willingness to once again add a big-money pitcher to the rotation.” As in the kind of nine-figure deal they haven’t done since Yu Darvish. So we’re talking Michael King, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, etc. I listed those pitchers in order of personal preference, though there’s a big gap after King and an even bigger one after Valdez. Zac Gallen is another option, especially if he meets projections and falls well below $100 million.

I just can’t help but question whether this is more of the same old “Welp, we tried” kind of thing we’ve seen over and over. Until we see otherwise, it has to be. The Cubs don’t just draw lines in the sand when it comes to their pursuits; they blow up roads or at least erect semi-permanent barriers. So when bidding pushes them past prescribed levels, they have no choice but to give up and turn back.

That’s especially true now that Cade Horton has emerged as a legitimate staff ace, something that Sharma wrote “makes things just a bit easier” for Hoyer. Some may interpret that as the front office being comfortable setting the bar lower when it comes to impact talent, and I’m not going to try to convince you otherwise. The Cubs have long been more comfortable with high floors and low ceilings for their starters, so it tracks that they’d be targeting another No. 3 or maybe No. 2 at the highest.

The exception could be Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai, whose posting window is open.

Tucker spotted at Jays facility

As first reported by Fansided’s Robert Murray and confirmed by The Athletic, former Cub Kyle Tucker toured the Blue Jays’ complex in Dunedin, FL on Wednesday. The facility factors heavily in the team’s recruiting pitches, like when Shohei Ohtani visited prior to the hubbub about a supposed flight to Toronto that never happened, and it’s also close to Tucker’s Tampa home.

It would be pretty wild for Toronto to add a mega contract after extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr., inking Cease, and then signing expat righty Cody Ponce, but they’re clearly hungry after falling short in the World Series. Are they hungry enough to add $40 million or so to a payroll that already stands at an estimated $282 million? They could be if they want to go all-in for 2026 knowing that about $93 million will fall off the books next year.

Even though the Cubs seemingly wrote him off well before the end of the season, seeing yet another big-ticket star sign elsewhere is frustrating. To that end, it’s funny how there’s such a divide among fans on that front. On one side, you have those who lament the possibility of ending up like the Mets. On the other, you’ve got folks whose panties get twisted a little tighter every time the Cubs sign a deal for less than $50 million. Even minor league pacts get those people worked up.

The problem is that the Cubs keep driving in the middle lane and hoping it’ll somehow move faster than the one to their left. They’ll flash their blinker once in a while as though to change lanes, only to brake and settle back in when another car blasts by them. If they don’t hit the accelerator at some point, they’ll continue to be left behind.

Other Notes

• Outfielder Cedric Mullins signed a one-year, $7 million deal with the Rays that both sides are probably hoping will work out well enough to merit a mid-season trade.
• Righty closer Emilio Pagán has returned to the Reds on a two-year, $20 million deal that lends credence to the idea that Cincy might actually push harder for a competitive roster.
• It’s expected that coveted Imai will begin his tour of teams following the Winter Meetings. As we indicated following his tongue-in-cheek comments about preferring a team that doesn’t have Japanese players already, the Cubs are expected to be among his top suitors.
• Miguel Rojas is back with the Dodgers at $5.5 million for his final season.
• The Dodgers could be open to trading right fielder Teoscar Hernández, but Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney cautioned against viewing that as an indication that they’re trying to sign Tucker.
• City officials believe St. Petersburg’s Tropicana Field will be ready by Opening Day on April 6 following repairs to hurricane damage that included the roof being torn clean off.