The Rundown: Ripple Effects of Hoerner’s Extension, Happ’s HR That Wasn’t, Heyward Retires

It remains hilarious to me how many people freak out about one game early in the season. It doesn’t help that Opening Day is a big deal, and that it’s followed by an off day in case of weather, but I don’t think anything could temper the abject foolishness of wild overreactions to an ugly loss. As bad as the Cubs looked yesterday, it has no bearing on the rest of the season. If anything, I’d argue that getting taken out behind the woodshed woke them up.

Far more eye-opening was the news that the Cubs had agreed to a six-year extension with second baseman Nico Hoerner, one of the most underrated players in the game. Getting a deal done made sense for both sides; the Cubs would have a very difficult time replacing Hoerner’s all-around contributions and his value on the open market probably wouldn’t be commensurate with his talent. While we await the specifics of the deal, let’s take a quick look at what it means for the team’s future.

The most obvious impact is on Matt Shaw, who no longer has a position in waiting. A Gold Glove finalist at third base last season, Shaw was pushed off the hot corner by Alex Bregman. Shaw then shifted to a utility role with the possibility of sliding to second next year, but that option is now off the table as well. That leaves Shaw as either a long-term utilityman or a full-time outfielder should Ian Happ and/or Seiya Suzuki not sign extensions of their own.

Of course, there’s also the possibility that Shaw ends up being traded to a team that needs a cost-controlled infielder. Barring his development into a legit outfielder, I see a trade out of Chicago as the most likely scenario at this point. If that’s the case, Jed Hoyer is going to need to solve for the corner outfield spots after this season. Kevin Alcantara could offer one solution, though the organization and outside evaluators alike have grown less bullish on his potential than they were a year or two ago.

Then there’s No. 3 prospect Ethan Conrad, a lefty-batting outfielder who could move quickly once his back issue clears up. It’s unlikely that the Cubs are planning to fill two vacancies with prospects, but Conrad could end up filling the role many believed Owen Caissie was going to take on prior to being traded to Miami. As much as a not-insignificant portion of the fanbase won’t like to hear this, my guess is that the Cubs would prioritize a new deal for Happ over Suzuki.

This is obviously all conjecture and we’ve got a lot of time before anything needs to be done, but I enjoy following all the little rabbit trails.

Happ’s HR Stolen by Wind

Not that it would have made much of a difference in the outcome, but Happ was robbed of a no-doubt home run by a gust of wind in the 9th inning. The ball left his bat at 108.5 mph at a 32-degree launch angle, which should have resulted in a souvenir for a ballhawk standing 435 feet from home plate on the Kenmore Street crosswalk. Instead, it ended nestling harmlessly in James Wood‘s glove well short of the warning track.

The folks at Weather Applied Metrics determined that the wind cost Happ an absurd 113 feet of distance, the largest “stop” in their three-plus years of data collection. The graphic below illustrates just how big a difference the gust made.

Yesterday, Ian Happ hit an absolute tank for a home run. 109 off the bat. 32 deg LA.

.. except, he didn’t. Thanks to our friends at @WeatherApplied, we know that the wind cost him *113 feet* of distance — which is now the largest stop in the data.

–> https://t.co/pTKQnRH2FP pic.twitter.com/A8ciftmKD7

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) March 27, 2026

MLB.com’s Mike Petriello wrote a piece last year about which players and ballparks were most impacted by weather, and you’ll be shocked to learn that Wrigley Field was the worst by several orders of magnitude. While some dunderheads still labor under the antiquated notion that Wrigley is hitter-friendly — and it did have more balls that gained 25+ feet of distance from wind than anywhere else — it’s been evident for some time that the wind there blows in far more often.

Just eyeballing the chart, it looks like Wrigley had about 210 balls that lost at least 25 feet of travel to the wind. That’s roughly equivalent to the next six ballparks combined. Maybe Tom Ricketts needs to replace the NÜTRL sign in left with a massive windscreen that extends all the way to the videoboard.

More News and Notes

• Jason Heyward has announced his retirement after a 16-year career that included stops with the Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, and Padres. I hope those who are still upset with him for taking the money the Cubs offered him can finally let that rest. Heyward was a tremendous teammate who made Chicago his permanent home and whose work in the community continues to be a shining example of how athletes can best spend their time and money during and after their careers.
• Paul Skenes was removed from his Opening Day start after recording only two outs on 37 pitches. He gave up five earned runs on two walks, a hit batter, and four “hits.” He got no help from center fielder Oneil Cruz, who misplayed a pair of fly balls that were not scored as errors.
• As if that wasn’t bad enough, Cruz was also the victim of MLB’s first-ever ABS challenge. After thinking he’d drawn ball four in a full count, the Mets challenged and the result was changed to a strikeout.
• Cruz has committed 37 errors over the last two-plus seasons, and his .939 fielding percentage is the lowest in baseball over that span. Even though FP is largely irrelevant, being that low is very, very bad. Next on the list is fellow freak athlete and NL Central player Elly De La Cruz, whose .955 FP includes 55 errors at shortstop.
• Tyler O’Neill failed to homer on Opening Day for the first time in seven years.
• Cardinals rookie JJ Wetherholt, who planned to be an MLB player at least as far back as fifth grade, homered in his first career at-bat.
• Mets rookie Carson Benge and Guardians rookie Chase DeLauter also homered.
• Tigers rookie Kevin McGonigle collected four hits in his MLB debut, which happened to be his first game above Double-A.
• Phillies center fielder Justin Crawford, son of Carl Crawford, had two hits in his debut.
• Mike Trout walked three times, stole a base, and hit the game-winning homer in what he’s hoping will be his first healthy season in five years.

Trailer Time

If you’ve read or seen The Mist by Stephen King — which is getting a remake at the hands of Mike Flanagan — you might get some familiar echoes from The End of Oak Street. Starring Anne Hathaway and Ewen McGregor, this August 14 release is written and directed by David Robert Mitchell and produced by J.J. Abrams. Oak Street sees the Platt family fighting for survival after their suburban neighborhood is transported to some unknown place.

I’m also getting some mild Crouch End vibes here, which makes sense given that this movie feels like it’s playing with Lovecraftian cosmic horror.