Dansby Swanson’s Heads-Up Baserunning Keys Cubs Comeback

Dansby Swanson opened the scoring for the Cubs on Sunday afternoon with a solo homer, but it was his heads-up baserunning that keyed their comeback. With his team down 6-3 in the bottom of the 7th inning, Swanson walked and made it to third on a Nico Hoerner double. Swanson then scored after tagging on an infield fly to second baseman Brandon Lowe, who fell down after making the catch just barely into the outfield grass.

Another play that should have involved Lowe resulted in Swanson coming around to score again following a walk in the 8th. Michael Busch‘s slump-busting lob shot into left field sent Swanson scampering to third, but Bryan Reynolds‘ wild throw to Lowe spurred the vigilant baserunner to break for home. It was the biggest of Swanson’s three runs scored on the afternoon, and a testament to practicing solid fundamentals.

“Had a funny saying in Spring Training,” Swanson told reporters in the clubhouse. “I always said, ‘If you need the base coaches to tell you what to do, you stink at baserunning.’ My whole life, it was just being taught to run with your eyes up, run with your eyes on the ball.”

Since his debut season in 2016, only 12 other players have amassed more than Swanson’s 26.8 baserunning runs above average (BsR). That list is a who’s-who of great players, but they’re not there just because they’re fast. While Swanson isn’t slow by any stretch, the 32-year-old is hardly what you’d call a speed burner. He hasn’t been above the 90th percentile in sprint speed since 2018, and he’s in the 60th so far this season. Even so, he’s been in the 93rd percentile or better in four of the last five seasons.

The one season in which he didn’t finish in the 90s came in 2023, when he was in the 72nd percentile during his first season in Chicago. Since Swanson joined the Cubs, their aggregate 31.5 BsR ranks fourth among all MLB teams. In the four seasons prior, their paltry 5.6 BsR ranked 12th. Swanson alone has been worth 12.1 baserunning runs during his time on the North Side. This isn’t just about him, though, as the whole team has clearly adopted a more aggressive approach than what Cubs fans have been used to.

As a team, the Cubs have stolen more than 100 bases only five times since the 2000 season. Four of those have come in the last four years (they had 121 in 2006), and their 161 steals are 18 more than the next-highest season in that stretch (2024). You have to go back to 1985 to find the most recent season with more steals (182) than they had last year. This is quite literally a throwback type of mentality, even if their strategy is aided by new rules.

But, again, it’s not just a matter of bigger bases and fewer disengagements. This is about taking the craft seriously and picking the right spots to take advantage of defensive positioning.

“Baserunning, we talk about it all the time,” Craig Counsell explained. “There’s risk involved, right? And you’ve got to take the right chances, and you want to take the right chances…

“On the sac fly, he understands the conditions here and that no pop fly is routine. And a guy gets on his heels and falls over because he’s trying to make the play and it’s a run. That’s everything. That’s everything.”

Would folks like to see Swanson get his batting average to within 30 points of the Mendoza Line? Sure. Could the power trend up a little? Of course. But he’s still carrying a .311 OBP that is nearly 150 points above his average, and he turned both of his walks on Sunday into runs. Even though he may not be making the most obvious contributions every day, Swanson is always doing the little things to give his team an advantage.

Now if he does manage to get the average and power up a little…