Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/27/26): Happ DH, Mo Baller Catching, Conforto in LF, Boyd Bump Day
The Cubs left LA with a disappointing result after running their win streak to 10 games in the series opener, and they have no one to blame but themselves. They stranded 19 runners on base between their losses on Saturday and Sunday as their good fortune wore out. That luck could just as easily turn again in San Diego, though the Padres are no slouch.
Matthew Boyd looked good last week against the Phillies in his first start off the IL, showing little rust from a three-week layoff. He’ll likely be on a limited pitch count, which could put the thrift shop bullpen under more pressure. Boyd has displayed excellent control over three starts, walking only three with 22 strikeouts. He might need to improve his command, though, as he’s given up 13 hits in 14 innings and is in the first percentile for hard-hit rate.
That might not burn him as badly in San Diego, as the Padres’ 25 home runs put them 24th in MLB entering Monday’s game. They’re in the bottom half of the majors in ISO (.147, 17th) and slugging (.382, 19th), so Boyd may have a little more room for error. Petco Park has also been playing down this year, though it’s been more hitter-friendly over the last three years than public perception holds.
The Cubs certainly have a power advantage on paper, but they still need to make good on it. Nico Hoerner leads off at second, followed by Michael Busch — who has raised his average by 48 points and his wRC+ by 40 during a seven-game hitting streak — at first and Alex Bregman at third. Ian Happ is the DH, Seiya Suzuki is in right, and Moisés Ballesteros gets his second start of the season at catcher. Michael Conforto is in left, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center.
Opposing them is righty Randy Vásquez, who is in his third season with the Padres after coming over from New York as part of the return for Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. Though it’s still very early, Vásquez appears to have taken a big leap forward in his performance. His 26.3% strikeout rate is almost double what he posted last year, largely due to a running 95 mph four-seam that he’s throwing harder and more frequently than ever.
He is throwing his 94.5 mph sinker a little less (from just over 19% to a little over 12%), which is interesting when you see that it was his best pitch by a wide margin last year. It looks like he’s better defined the shapes of his two fastballs and the 88 mph changeup he throws about 11% of the time. His 90 mph cutter has been solid as well, and he’ll throw it about a third of the time to righties and nearly a quarter of the time overall.
His slider tends to hang on him, blending with the cutter at about six ticks slower, making it more of a show-me pitch than anything. Vásquez also throws a curve, mostly to lefties, and an occasional sweeper. His relatively balanced repertoire and usage have led to fairly comparable splits, though he’s gotten wildly different results at home and on the road. We can probably chalk that up small samples, as he’s traditionally been better against right-handed hitters and at home.
Vásquez has only allowed one home run over nearly 29 innings, and he’s struck out 30 batters to just eight walks. Those free passes tend to come in bunches, so we may know early on what kind of game this will be for him. After failing to push Justin Wrobleski into statistical correction yesterday, perhaps the Cubs can aid in Vásquez’s leveling out. They sure could use a better offensive performance, and they’ll need to do it early to avoid having to face Mason Miller.
First pitch is at 8:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
See you in San Diego.
Tune in live on @WatchMarquee. pic.twitter.com/5oJfJrEtyb
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 27, 2026
