Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/15/26): Busch Bats Second, Mo Baller DH, Cabrera Starting
The Cubs are technically still on the road even though they’re back in Chicago, but the South Side may not be quite as hospitable as it has been recently. Once a laughingstock due to their widespread organizational incompetence, the White Sox are finally looking like a real baseball team again. They have won five straight to get over .500, making this the first time since 2008 (in a non-COVID season) that these teams have met when both have winning records.
While the Cubs are favored, they come into this one having scored five total runs during a 1-4 stretch that followed 10 consecutive wins. They’ve only given up 18 runs (3.6 per game) over that span, but Edward Cabrera was responsible for five of them. That broke his streak of five consecutive games with three earned runs allowed, and it may have brought some of his issues this season to a head.
Cabrera’s fastball velocity has been down all season, and it’s not just a matter of cooler temps at Wrigley in the early part of the season. To wit, his highest average velo came when he sat 96.5 mph on March 30 at home against the Angels. Of course, that was actually a very warm day, so it doesn’t really fit either narrative. He’s only gotten to 96 in one other game, also at home on April 23 against the Phillies. Cabrera was just at 95.2 mph in Arlington, which is both warm and in a domed ballpark.
His sinker has been a bigger issue than the four-seam because he throws it far more often, but he’s also had trouble with the shape and effectiveness of his breaking balls. The curveball has seen a big drop in spin efficiency for some reason, possibly because Cabrera is throwing from a lower arm slot than ever before. I’m sure the Cubs are well aware of what’s going on, so I anticipate some little tweaks as the season goes along.
On a positive note, his strikeout rate has been up over the last three starts. Getting more whiffs will make a big difference, especially if he can maintain that decreased walk rate. Scoring a bunch of runs will take a lot of pressure off as well.
Nico Hoerner will try to get that started at second base, then it’s Michael Busch bumping back up to the two spot at first base. Alex Bregman bats and plays third, Ian Happ is in left, Seiya Suzuki is in right, and Moisés Ballesteros is the DH. Carson Kelly does the catching, Pete Crow-Armstrong patrols center, and Dansby Swanson is at short.
Going for the Sox is Shawn Burke, a homegrown righty who was selected with the 94th overall pick in 2021 out of Maryland. Burke was a teammate of Matt Shaw and former Cubs great Ben Cowles during his time with the Terrapins, which was truncated by Tommy John recovery and then COVID. He only pitched 97 innings in college, but his 107 strikeouts in 74.1 frames as a redshirt sophomore caught plenty of eyes. After making it to Triple-A in his first full pro season, Burke made only nine starts in 2023 while dealing with shoulder inflammation.
He then made 16 starts at Triple-A Charlotte in 2024 before being called up in September for a stellar debut. Over four appearances, three of which were starts, Burke had a 1.42 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 19 innings. He was in Chicago for all but three outings last season, making 22 starts out of 28 MLB appearances with a 4.22 ERA. He’s served in the same swing role this season, and has a 3.68 ERA with lower strike and walk numbers than in the past.
This will be Burke’s seventh start and ninth total appearance of the year, but those two non-starts both came as the bulk man following an opener. The big righty relies heavily on a 94 mph cut-ride fastball that plays up a little due to his 6.9-foot extension. He likes to throw it middle-up and favors it more against left-handed batters. Between the four-seam (44%) and curve (29%), his repertoire is less varied in those matchups.
Right-handed hitters will see an almost equal dosage of fastball (29%) and slider (28%), with the sinker (24%) coming in right behind. He will also mix the curve (16%) in there pretty frequently, and that higher degree of variation helps him to maintain stronger traditional splits than in the past. He threw the sinker much less last season, which allowed righties to really cut loose on him.
Now that he’s able to bust them in on the hands with the two-seam, his performance has improved. In addition to getting more grounders and fewer barrels, Burke has also issued fewer walks. His whiff rate is only in the 14th percentile, though, so the Cubs should be able to produce plenty of contact this evening. The issue will be whether or not they can capitalize on it. Despite collecting five hits against Chris Sale last night, their only run against him came from a walk, a fielder’s choice with an error, and a groundout.
Something tells me we’ll see the bats get going in this one, and I’m thinking there will be at least two homers from the real good guys. First pitch is at 6:40pm CT on Marquee, CSN, WCIU, MLB.tv (for free), The Score, and ESPN 1000.
