‘Way Too Early’ to Watch Standings as Cubs’ LOB Issues Persist in Latest Losses

This latest stretch of Cubs games is like a fart in an elevator: It really stinks and everyone is too embarrassed to say anything, so you just wait uncomfortably to reach your floor. The elevator is currently headed down for Craig Counsell and crew, as the Crew just won the first two games at Wrigley to snap the Cubs’ 15-game home win streak and take over first place in the division.

The futility has not been of any one particular failure, though it’s hard to ignore the team’s prolonged issues with capitalizing on runners in scoring position. Though they’re not reaching base as often as they had been, the Cubs are still generating more traffic than their scoring indicates. Their first two batters have reached in each of the games against the Brewers, only to come up with goose eggs, but those are just small examples of a bigger issue.

The Cubs lead MLB with 396 runners left on base, 26 more than any other team and 58 more than the league average. Even if they had only managed to drive in half of those, we’re talking about several more wins. Heck, just getting 10-12 of those runners home would have made a big impact. Some would have merely provided insurance in games they won, but butterflies and hurricanes and all that jazz.

At this point, though, all the pearl-clutching and gnashing of teeth has been confined to the fans who have itchier trigger fingers than Craig Counsell. The folks in the clubhouse have a different perspective on things, as they should. Ian Happ laid out their mentality during an appearance with Rahimi & Harris on 104.3 The Score Tuesday afternoon.

“One thousand percent,” Happ said when asked about worrying about the standings. “It is way too early, it doesn’t matter. Every game matters; it’s a 162-game season, every game is important. But I don’t think any one game is more important than another, and I don’t think that — you look at the standings in July once we get to the trade deadline and then look at them again in September.

“I think those are the times that matter for teams. You know, teams make decisions based on where they’re at in the standings in middle-late July, and then again once you get to September and you’ve got a month left… Right now, there’s so much baseball to be played, there’s so many things that can happen.”

While I appreciate what Happ is saying, particularly because players can’t really be scoreboard-watching at this point, some see this as an indication that the Cubs lack urgency. After all, there’s a difference between being reactionary and being proactive. Counsell and his players aren’t prone to falling prey to the former, but it can feel at times as though they’re simply waiting for things to happen rather than taking action to expedite better results.

The lineup has been a lightning rod for discourse over the last several days, and for good reason. The biggest culprits in the LOB woes have been four batters who typically occupy one of the top five spots in the order. Happ ranks first/last in MLB with 107 runners left on base (0.50/PA); Alex Bregman is third with 103 (0.47); Seiya Suzuki is sixth with 96 (0.62); and Michael Busch is tied for seventh with 93 (0.44). Suzuki got a late start and has 57 fewer plate appearances than the others, or he might be ranked higher.

Ed. note: Those figures come to 399, which is greater than the team’s total, but a lot of those runners are applied to more than one batter.

Bregman has driven in only 16 runs this season, fewer than eight of his teammates, and only Nico Hoerner has more PAs than the third baseman. Among 206 qualified MLB hitters, Seiya Suzuki’s 19 wRC+ with runners in scoring position is tied for 199th. Bregman’s 50 is tied for 191st and Happ’s 72 is tied for 165th. Busch’s 133 wRC+ puts him all the way down to 72nd, but he’s the only one whose stats are better with RISP than they are on the whole.

“Frustrating, for me, especially,” Happ told reporters after the game. “I’ve been in that situation late and haven’t come through enough for the group. It’s not going to be like that all year. The tide’s going to turn. We’re going to get a bunch of base hits with runners in scoring position. That’s coming.”

Rather than further belaboring a point I’ve already made recently, I’ll wrap this up by saying that something has to change. Brilliant analysis, huh? Rather than just putting faith in an inevitable reversal of fortune, now might be a good time to tinker a little. Waiting until July to make big changes is fine for the front office, but Cousell may need to operate on a slightly more urgent timeline.