Chicago Cubs Lineup (6/9/26): PCA Leads Off, Swanson Returns, Rea Facing Rox
I’m still in my soft boycott of in-depth matchup analysis because the Cubs simply refuse to provide us with a consistently acceptable product, but having a late game following a Monday off grants a little leeway. Being in Denver means there’s a chance for the offense to wake up a little bit, even if the humidor has taken a little of the fun out of the altitudinal excesses of the ballpark.
Then there’s the concern that Cubs pitchers have allowed more home runs than any other group in the majors. Colin Rea is not among the team’s three worst offenders in that category, though his 1.25 HR/9 mark isn’t ideal. Rea is also walking batters at a higher clip than he has in several years, so the big hits are causing a little more damage. Of course, even pitching a great game means little when the offense provides little support.
Reigning NL Player of the Week Pete Crow-Armstrong leads off in center, followed by Moisés Ballesteros at DH and Michael Busch at first. Alex Bregman is the cleanup hitter despite being mired in a tremendous slump that drew boos from the Wrigley crowd, Ian Happ is in left, and Seiya Suzuki is in right. Nico Hoerner plays second, Miguel Amaya is the catcher, and Dansby Swanson returns to the lineup at short following a two-game mental break.
They’re up against 36-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano, who is in his second MLB season after pitching for several seasons in Japan. He signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Orioles as an international free agent in December of 2024, then pitched for one year in Baltimore before signing with the Rockies. He’s provided very good value for his $5.1 million salary, but it sure looks like the bottom could drop out at any moment.
Sugano’s varied repertoire features just one pitch, the splitter, that has generated positive value this season. He sits just over 92 mph with the fastball and sinker, both of which wind up over the heart of the plate too often and have little deception due to his relatively minimal extension. His slider, sweeper, cutter, and curve all see usage against hitters from both sides, but all that variation hasn’t helped much.
His whiff and strikeout rates are in the second percentile, and his barrel rate allowed, expected ERA (7.62) and xBA (.317) are all in the first percentile. The splitter has been good and Sugano doesn’t walk many batters, so his 3.98 ERA looks like smoke and mirrors.
His numbers are predictably worse at home, where opposing batters slash .280/.333/.490 against him, though eight of the 11 homers he’s surrendered have come on the road. Lefty batters have been much better against him, particularly at Coors Field, which is a good sign for PCA. Though the team’s numbers haven’t looked good in 20 at-bats against Sugano, things could change in a hurry tonight.
First pitch is at 7:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
📍Colorado
Watch the game live on @WatchMarquee. pic.twitter.com/Mfk4tlkS15
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) June 9, 2026
