Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/7/26): Boyd, Baz Battle in Baltimore
The Cubs sandwiched a disappointing weekend performance between days off, and now they start their final first-half kick with three in Baltimore to face an Orioles team that hasn’t made good on its promise from 2023. After stockpiling tons of young talent by tanking their way to a 253-455 record from 2017-21, they went 101-61 in 2023 and then 91-71 the following season. They were swept from the playoffs in the divisional round and then the Wild Card round, and have been under .500 in each of the last two years.
I’m not sure how it’s possible to get worse as your young players come up and mature into their respective primes, but that’s what’s happening. The O’s are currently 42-49, with no indication that a run of good fortune is due to come their way. They have a mediocre offense with a pitching staff that falls somewhat short of okay, and their defense is in the bottom half of the league as well. This simply isn’t a good team.
Matthew Boyd should be licking his chops at the prospect of facing a lineup that holds a mere 88 wRC+ against lefties this season, 19 points lower than their performance against righties. Boyd has been fine since returning from the IL a little less than two weeks ago, but it’s clear that he’s still shaking off a little rust. This is the kind of matchup that could get him going again.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is leading off in center, followed by Alex Bregman at third and Michael Busch at first. Seiya Suzuki cleans up in right, Ian Happ is in left, Nico Hoerner is the second baseman, and Michael Conforto handles the DH duties. Dansby Swanson at short and Miguel Amaya at catcher round things out.
They’re facing former top Rays prospect Shane Baz, who was traded north in December for a haul that includes youngsters currently ranked Nos. 3, 9, 11, and 25 in Tampa’s system. Oh, the Rays also got the No. 33 overall pick in the upcoming draft. That was a massive package for a 27-year-old who’s undergone two elbow surgeries, the last of which was a Tommy John reconstruction that cost him all of the 2023 season, and was coming off a season in which he posted a 4.87 ERA over 31 starts.
Baz still has a little potential remaining, though, and the O’s were able to sign him to a five-year, $68 million extension that provides cost certainty through the 2030 season. With a $13.6 million average annual value, Baz really just needs to pitch like a No. 3 starter at best. Then again, he probably needs to be an ace to justify what the Orioles gave up in prospects to get him.
That has not been the case this season, as his percentile rankings are almost all in the lower half. Only his 96 mph fastball velocity stands out, but it’s offset by whiff, strikeout, and walk rates that are not commensurate with expectations. He also gives up a lot of hard contact in the air, though he’s not giving up as many home runs as in previous seasons.
Baz is going to give up nearly one hit per inning, and he’s typically going to issue at least two walks per game, so the Cubs should be able to put runners on against him. The key, as always, is what they do once those runners reach. Baz has pitched to pretty significant traditional splits this season, but it’s come in a weird way. For whatever reason, right-handed hitters have destroyed him in Baltimore while struggling in their own parks. It would be nice if that held tonight.
Against lefties, Baz will go four-seam (40%), curve (37%), changeup (13%), with the cutter (8%) thrown in for good measure. Righties see a much more balanced attack of cutter (31%), curve (28%), fastball (24%), and sinker (16%). The sinker isn’t a very aptly named pitch in Baz’s case because he typically throws it up in the zone with way more ride than most. We’re talking over 4 inches less vertical drop than average, plus it gets less arm-side movement. It has actually worked pretty well for him, perhaps because it doesn’t behave like other pitches of its ilk.
The cutter has also been effective, but the four-seam, curve, and changeup have produced decidedly negative results to this point. What it all comes down to is that Baz has been merely decent with flashes of very good sprinkled in here and there. A lack of consistency has done him in, so the Cubs catching him after one of his better starts could really work in their favor.
Even though this lineup has only put together 22 total at-bats against Baz so far, the results have been pretty solid. We’re talking a .500 average with a 1.340 OPS and one home with four doubles. Tacking on another homer or through would be nice. First pitch is at 5:35pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
