Quantifying Hope: Hot Stretch Pushes Cubs’ Odds Near Body Temp
Losing three out of five to the Cardinals and Yankees wasn’t a great look for the Cubs, especially when they scored only three runs in the losses. But, boy, have they looked better since Jed Hoyer proved his commitment to the season with a trade deadline haul that many are saying was the best in MLB. A decisive sweep of the Dodgers was followed by an improbable comeback win over the Blue Jays, and now the schedule lightens up.
Between their strong play and stronger roster, the Cubs are up to 98.2% playoff odds in the latest update from FanGraphs. Though they’ve been unable to gain ground on the Brewers with any of their last three wins, the rest of the division is fading fast. With a 9.5-game cushion on the Cardinals entering Friday’s games, the Cubs should just be focused on keeping Milwaukee within striking distance.
Not to discount the Wild Card race, which sees the Cubs up 5 games on the Phillies for the top seed and 7 up on the Padres for a playoff spot, but taking the Central should still be the goal. I mean, the Crew left the door open by opting for a much more subdued deadline push. With seven more weeks left in the season, picking up one game each week would put the Cubs up at the finish line.
If the Brewers maintain their current winning percentage, they’ll go 29-18 the rest of the way. That means the Cubs would have to go 35-11 (.761) to take first place, which is a pretty tough ask. But what if Milwaukee goes 25-22 down the stretch? The Cubs could go 31-15 (.674) and still end up winners. And let’s not forget that these two have seven games remaining against one another, starting with a four-game set at Wrigley to close August and open September.
Just sweep those games and play to a draw the rest of the way, simple as that. Or not, even though that would be really fun. This weekend will give us a look at the Cubs’ newest front-line starters, Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes, and it should also give the offense a chance to keep up a little momentum before finally getting a day off for the first time in 17 days.
This team just needs to keep pushing the pace and forcing the Brewers to play perfect baseball, as I believe the Cubs have done enough to build a roster that is better suited for both sprints and marathons. Between the additions and the reinforcements coming off the injured list, Craig Counsell‘s only real problem will be figuring out how to allocate innings and at-bats.
