Matthew Boyd’s Recent Struggles Underscore Concern About Cubs’ Postseason Viability
Unless they pull some 1969 BS, the Cubs will be in the playoffs after the regular season concludes. That means they’ll have a puncher’s chance to make some noise. As we saw Friday night, however, their glass jaw could make that knockout power irrelevant. Matthew Boyd had been (and may still be) the presumed No. 1 starter, but he’s given up at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts.
That includes eight home runs with just 11 strikeouts and nine walks over 25 innings. Boyd’s fastball has been particularly bad during that stretch, with a -2.5 run value. Statcast has his heater at -5 runs on the season, putting him in the 17th percentile. He generated 10 runs of value to fall in the 86th percentile last season. Even with the slider and curve being much better, his fastball and middling changeup have dragged him down.
Between Boyd, Shōta Imanaga, Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, and David Peterson, you’d be hard-pressed to come up with three starters in whom you could place any real confidence to win a playoff game. Parting ways with Jameson Taillon helped to slow the bleeding a little, but this is still a staff that gives up way too many homers. Cubs starters have given up an MLB-leading 121 dingers this season and 21 so far in August, which does not portend good things when the lights get brighter.
The concept of “ball go far, team go far” comes from the fact that home runs have an outsized impact in the postseason because offense is typically harder to come by against better pitchers. That puts the Cubs in a precarious position because, while they lead all contending NL teams with 168 homers, they have pitched only five shutouts this season. No other team in the playoff picture has thrown fewer than eight.
What’s more, the Cubs have been on the wrong end of 12 shutouts so far. That’s more than all but the Pirates, Mets, and Reds (13 each), and it could be seen as a red flag in terms of their propensity to disappear offensively for stretches. It’s probably a nothingburger in light of their overall offensive success, just like Friday night’s 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position pales in comparison to their season-long 106 wRC+ in those situations. Their 48 homers with RISP lead MLB, and they’re going to need that uppercut if the pitching problems persist.
The good news is that they’ve still got five weeks to sort things out and tinker with a few things before the stakes are raised. Boyd could easily return to form, as could Imanaga. Gausman should be fine after that fluke with the hand cramp, though I remain concerned about how much contact he’s giving up. Holmes, on the other hand, might be the guy Craig Counsell trusts the most when October rolls around.
After shaking off the rust during his first start in over two months, the righty has allowed just one earned run over his last 12 innings. His ability to keep the ball on the ground makes him a perfect fit to pitch in front of this defense, even when he’s not getting many whiffs. If he can manage to miss a few more bats, Holmes could be the ace the Cubs have lacked almost all season.
They don’t need all the starters to be perfect, just good enough to be able to land a haymaker or two before they get laid out.
