Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/24/26): Gausman Starting Very Favorable Matchup

It’s too bad the Cubs can’t use run differential to balance out a loss here and there, because winning 19-2 sure would have helped. But since that can’t make up for two walk-off losses, they really need to take care of business against the Diamondbacks. Before looking ahead to Monday’s game, though, we need to discuss two pretty incredible feats.

During the series against the White Sox, Pete Crow-Armstrong became the first player in MLB history to hit a leadoff homer and a walk-off homer in the same game before then leading off the next game with a homer. It had never happened before in over 150 years. Then, just four days later, Randy Arozarena accomplished that same feat against the Cubs. That is WILD.

It was also not the only incredible performance in which the Cubs were involved. Bryce Miller — who has been dealing with a injury for several weeks, just as I had wondered — was the losing pitcher in Sunday’s game, and he was on the bump for the Mariners’ 22-0 loss to the Brewers a few days earlier. He thus became the first pitcher since George Van Haltren of the 1890 Brooklyn Wonders to lose consecutive starts by at least 17 runs. Yikes.

Of course, the Cubs only got three innings out of Shōta Imanaga yesterday and now need Kevin Gausman to put up a better performance than he has the last two times out. After going seven innings with only two runs allowed on four hits in his debut, the righty has failed to complete five innings in his last two Cubs starts. He allowed seven hits in both, and he’s given up a homer in all three Cubs starts after not surrendering one in his last five starts with the Blue Jays.

Gausman was supposed to strengthen the rotation, but he’s not been much better than either Imanaga or Matthew Boyd to this point. That’s starting to become a concern for a team that doesn’t appear to have the arms to compete in the postseason. Maybe they can just keep putting up football scores.

There might not be a better pitching matchup for them than Merrill Kelly, who has fallen off a cliff in the first half of a two-year, $40 million deal to return to Arizona following his trade to Texas last July. Kelly’s strikeout rate has plummeted to a career-low 14.9%, his walk rate has spiked to a career-high 10.1%, and he’s giving up more home runs than ever.

You know it’s bad when his 5.37 ERA is actually lower than his FIP (5.80) and much lower than his expected ERA (7.25). If not for his curveball, a pitch he throws only about 12% of the time — more often to left-handed hitters — Kelly would be doing even worse. His fastball and cutter make up over 40% of his repertoire and have produced a -21 run value, putting him in the first percentile. His changeup, which had been his best pitch by far, has also been rough.

Traditionally a split-neutral pitcher, Kelly has skewed a little more traditional this year. He has also been much worse at home, where opposing hitters have slashed .293/.360/.563 with 14 of the 26 home runs he’s allowed. And that’s in just over 22 fewer innings than he’s pitched on the road. Kelly faced the Cubs at Wrigley back in early May, going 4.1 innings with six earned runs on eight hits.

He still gets a lot of chase, with a 34.4% mark that puts him in the 86th percentile, but he’s lost the ability to put hitters away on a consistent basis. That said, this is a guy who still knows how to pitch and who has put up some really strong performances in the midst of the worst season of his career. I think the Cubs will get to him, but he might have a trick or two up his sleeve.

First pitch is at 8:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score