Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/9/26): Wounded Wild Card Contenders Need Gausman to Stop Bleeding
The Cubs had a 98.6% chance of winning last night’s game when Garrett Mitchell lined to center for the second out in the bottom of the 9th. Eight pitches later, the score was tied and the Brewers had flipped the odds to 53.4% in their favor. The Cubs were at 75.2% in the 8th inning of Monday’s game, and they had 76.5% odds after hanging five runs on Jacob Misiorowski in his previous start against them.
That those all happened to include appearances by Jacob Webb is something of a coincidence, and Tuesday’s loss was the only one of those three in which he’d blown a save. At least he didn’t give a walk-off homer, which had been the case in his last two save chances. All of those tying or walk-off homers came with two outs in the 9th, making Webb the first pitcher in MLB history to have that happen in three straight save opportunities (saves became official in 1969). Thanks for that, OptaStats.
Kevin Gausman hasn’t blown any saves, but he has had a couple of rough outings so far as a Cub. That wasn’t the case when he struck out nine batters and gave up just one run over seven innings when he faced the Brewers last week. The Cubs may need a repeat of that effort tonight if they want to avoid the sweep and maintain the shrinking gap between themselves and the two teams just behind them in the Wild Card race.
The Diamondbacks have won four in a row and the Padres are on a three-game run to tighten things considerably. You might think it’d be tough to blow a three-game lead with just 16 left to play, but the Cubs have dropped at least three games in the standings to both teams over the last three days. All the run differential in the world won’t matter if they don’t start winning regularly again.
First on the agenda is scoring more than three runs, which the Cubs have done in each of those last three losses. We know they can score runs in bunches, so how about seeing more proof of that tonight? Pete Crow-Armstrong will lead off in center, followed by Seiya Suzuki in right and Michael Busch at first. Alex Bregman plays third, Ian Happ will serve as the DH after fouling a ball off his foot and leaving last night’s game, Nico Hoerner is at short, and Pedro Ramírez is at second. Michael Conforto patrols left field and Carson Kelly is the catcher.
They’re up against young righty Logan Henderson, who took a loss at Wrigley last week despite allowing only two runs on three hits over seven innings. The 24-year-old struck out seven with no walks and was dominant all evening. Though he did allow a two-run homer to PCA for the Cubs’ only offense, it came on a changeup that tumbled well below the zone. That was just a case of the NL MVP running into one.
That homer was all about being ready for Henderson’s fastball and adjusting to his offspeed, which actually has a higher average spin rate (2556 RPM) than the four-seam (2333). That can make it difficult for hitters to perceive the differences between the two, but PCA noticed a “wrinkle” that betrays the nature of the offering.
Henderson’s fastball sits 93 mph and he gets very little extension from his 6-foot, 210-pound frame, so you’d think hitters would be all over him. But he’s got a 2.48 ERA with a 3.27 FIP and 93 strikeouts to just 14 walks over 83.1 innings. And while his .211 BABIP against says some of that is a mirage, he’s deep enough into the season to prove that the results aren’t a fluke.
That’s because, as noted above, the combination of his ride-run heater and running changeup creates all kinds of deception. The heater accounts for about 46% of his throws and the change is at 34%, with much heavier right-on-right usage than most. His 88 mph cutter has also been quite good, then he’s got an 81 mph sweeper that has been subpar in very limited exposure.
This young righty is quite a contradiction in that he gets loads of strikeouts without elite whiff or chase numbers. He also limits BABIP despite giving up lots of barrels and hard contact with very few grounders, which tells us he’s done a great job of just barely avoiding perfect-perfect batted balls. Henderson just knows how to pitch, which is why his splits are so consistent across the board.
He has given up as many as three runs only twice this season, and he’s walked two or more batters only three times. Of the 23 earned runs he’s allowed, 14 have come on the 12 homers he’s given up. Without going back through every homer, I’d venture to guess several of them were like PCA’s in that a hitter just beat Henderson or maybe got a little luck. This kid doesn’t make many mistakes, and he certainly doesn’t allow them to compound.
The fact that he’s a strike-thrower should be good for the Cubs, which is the same thing I said last week when they had three hits. All were struck very well, however, and the Cubs managed to get a fair bit of hard contact that went for outs. Henderson threw his changeup more in that last game than he has all season, and we’ll see more of the same if he’s feeling it again tonight. At the same time, he could use the cutter more often after throwing it less than ever last time.
This might just be my reaction to the funk they’ve been in, but I don’t like this matchup for the Cubs tonight. I hope that means they’ll prove me wrong. First pitch is at 6:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
