The Rundown: Cubs Will Go as Far as Offense Takes Them, PCA’s Historic Year, MLB Honors Clemente Today

“Come out upon my seas, curse missed opportunities.” – Clocks by Coldplay

The Cubs certainly didn’t gain any ground on the Brewers or the Phillies while I was away, but nothing is slowing Pete Crow-Armstrong, who now seems like a lock to win the NL MVP award. His lead over Shohei Ohtani is about as invincible as Milwaukee’s lead in the NL Central, and the numbers are just as staggering. Crow-Armstrong’s Major League-leading WAR is up to 10.1 (per FanGraphs) and the gap over Ohtani (6.8) continues to grow. Elly De La Cruz (5.7) is third among position players in this year’s race.

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the @Cubs has now had 7 games this season with:

4+ hits
multiple XBH
a home run

That's the most by any MLB player in a single season in the modern era. pic.twitter.com/PyHifDWGNe

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) September 15, 2026

I’ve previously compared PCA to Willie Mays and I’ve not wavered from that position. Time will tell if Chicago’s center fielder can keep a similar trajectory over the course of his career, but barring injury, it’s reasonable to expect regular 30/30 seasons. The flipside to that is Ronald Acuña Jr., who also put up mind-boggling numbers until chronic injuries cut into his production. Acuña is healthy now, and entered last night’s game against the Cubs slashing .403/.449/1.126 with four homers, five doubles, and 12 RBI since August 30.

Acuña was 0-for-4 last night, but PCA had another four-hit game in Chicago’s 7-3 win over Atlanta. The Cubs are now 56-8 (.875) when scoring six or more runs, so let’s focus on that statistic for a second. They’re also 9-4 (.692) when scoring exactly five runs, and it gets pretty ugly after that. They’re 6-13 (.316) when scoring exactly four runs, which leaves them at 13-42 (.236) when scoring fewer than four times per game. Yikes. That’s food for thought as the playoffs approach.

Since Major League Baseball expanded its postseason format with the Wild Card, tracking those specific run-scoring thresholds reveals exactly how critical offense becomes in October. Based on the stats above, Chicago’s formula to win the World Series this year is to average five or more runs per game across the entire postseason schedule, period.

• Playoff teams have historically achieved that five-run threshold in about 42% of all postseason games played. The Cubs, therefore, have their work cut out for them.
• Offensive production in the playoffs drops nearly one run per game as compared to the regular season (4.94 to 4.17).
• Scoring five or more runs is a near guarantee for success. Teams that hit that benchmark boast a postseason winning percentage that exceeds .800.

Further, the Cubs need to strike early and as often as possible to increase their chances of winning. The team’s offensive production takes a big hit in the later innings of non-blowout contests as opponents rely on specialized, high-velocity arms. Additionally, Cubs starters rank 27th in WAR this year with an elite defense backing them, and the bullpen is ranked 28th, so jumping out to large, early leads will be essential for playoff success. The Cubs are playing .556 baseball despite abominable pitching, and those margins will get squeezed a lot tighter in October. That leaves no margin for error, particularly when it comes to fielding.

The good news is that the Cubs have the type of offense that can hang a lot of crooked numbers. Their overall run differential is +142, and as of September 10, they led the NL in runs scored, home runs, OBP, SLG, OPS+, and wRC+ with Crow-Armstrong pacing the team in all of those categories. They’ll have to be relentless to get the 13 wins it takes to get to the World Series. Then again, they’ll be the only playoff team that has two double-digit winning streaks on its 2026 resume.

Cubs News & Notes

• PCA is having an historic season and set several new precedents in last night’s win.
• The 3.3-WAR gap between Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani equals the gap between Ohtani and the duo of Jake Bauers and Bryce Harper, who are tied for 60th in MLB. If that holds, it would be the first time in 70 years that there was a 3-fWAR gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 players. Mickey Mantle (11.5) finished well ahead of Duke Snider (7.5) in 1956.
• The all-star center fielder was robbed of two home runs in Sunday’s loss to the Pirates, and he’s three stolen bases shy of joining the 40/40 club.
• The Cubs can exact a little revenge on the Braves and Acuña if PCA swipes three more bags this series.
• The Cubs are trying to do something this season that baseball hasn’t seen since the days of Cincinnati’s Big Red Machine. Chicago leads the league in offense but sits among the league’s worst teams in pitching production. The Cubs also rank first in the majors as a team in Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value.
• Don’t look now, but Alex Bregman is having one of the best seasons of his career.
• The third baseman has been quietly clutch defensively, too.
• The Cubs are counting on Bregman to be a difference-maker once the playoffs start.
• Chicago’s bullpen should get a boost in the coming week with the additions of Shelby Miller and Justin Steele.
• Edward Cabrera is currently active ($), and manager Craig Counsell sees him as an X-factor in the same way that Roki Sasaki was as a reliever for the Dodgers in 2025. Steele could just as easily be that guy, too.
• MLB executives say the Brewers are the team to beat in this year’s playoffs, though one AL exec said the Cubs are the biggest threat to derail Milwaukee. “I’ll take the Cubs. First in offense, first in defense and a No.1-type starter in Clay Holmes. I know they just had bullpen problems, but as long as they keep the ball in the park, the Cubs will always have a chance.”
• Even The Onion has PCA Fever.

Ball Four

Why would anyone talk?

Last week, I asked every MLB team to speak with its owner on camera. They’re less than three months from shutting down the sport via a lockout, and I wanted to hear their explanation for why they think a salary cap is worth the fallout that's bound to come. None agreed to talk. pic.twitter.com/dSKoE8Y7ms

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 15, 2026

Central Intelligence

• Milwaukee (93-57): The Brewers can clinch the division title today with a win over the Pirates and a Chicago loss to Atlanta. They’ve clinched in every NL Central ballpark since 2018 except Pittsburgh.
• Chicago (84-67): Tyrone Taylor might be the Cubs’ best deadline acquisition when all is said and done. He’s hitting .367/.403/.920 since arriving from the Mets in the Holmes trade. The Cubs sent Jefferson Rojas to New York in that deal.
• Pittsburgh (75-75): Star outfielder Oneil Cruz allegedly brought in a “fixer” to buy off the families of three people who died in a tragic car accident he caused while allegedly under the influence of alcohol, according to a new report.
• St. Louis (75-76): The Cardinals could target one-time ace Spencer Strider in the offseason to bolster their 2027 rotation.
• Cincinnati (70-80): Manager Terry Francona wants to stay with the Reds beyond this season, and sees himself as “part of the solution” to turning the franchise around.

Wild Thing, You Make My Heart Sing

Chicago’s magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 7, and their magic number for WC1 and home-field advantage is 11. They finish the season with games against the Braves (2), Reds (3), Marlins (3), and Red Sox (3).

• Philadelphia (83-67): The Phillies’ bullpen has been a disappointing failure whenever the team needs it the most.
• San Diego (82-68): The scorching Padres have gone 34-20 since the All-Star break, including a 21-7 stretch, to vault themselves back into playoff contention. They’ve won nine of their last 10 games.
• Arizona (80-71): Corbin Carroll led the Diamondbacks to another walk-off win, the 45th time they’ve come from behind this season.

How About That!

Roberto Clemente will be honored by all 30 teams today. All players will wear No. 21 on their uniform to celebrate the heroic Hall of Famer.

The Dodgers clinched a playoff berth for an MLB-record14th consecutive season.

The Guardians lost a crucial game to the White Sox and forfeited the AL Central tiebreaker by doing so.

The Yankees have the second-best record in the AL but will probably enter the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

Seven teams have been eliminated from postseason contention, including the Reds. The clock is ticking on the Mariners, Cardinals, Royals, and Orioles.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a home run in Toronto on Saturday for the first time this season.

Three from the Bill Chuck Files

1. The Brewers are the first team in MLB history to record multiple shutout wins of 20-plus runs in a season.
2. Mays and Frank Robinson both hit their 500th career home run on September 13. Mays did it in 1965 and Robinson hit his in 1971.
3. Seven of the top 10 teams in baseball reside in the NL. The AL Central-leading White Sox have the 11th-best record (77-73) in baseball. The AL West-leading Astros have the 13th-best record (75-75).

Apropos of Nothing

The Astros lead the Rangers by one game with 12 to play, and Houston owns the tiebreaker. Only three teams have made the MLB playoffs with a sub-.500 record, and all came in shortened seasons. The 1981 Royals finished 50-53 in a strike-shortened season. The Brewers and Astros both finished 29-31 in 2020 but made the playoffs in an expanded 16-team format.

Imagine tying for the division lead and losing because of a tie-breaker rule. Perhaps Rob Manfred should think about contraction instead of expansion.

Son of Apropos

I quit my second job at a local bar so I should be more regular with my columns. That’s a $350 weekly hit, though, so ouch. I just can’t do it at my age anymore. I’m also no longer working on Zambia time.

Extra innings

Who doesn’t love the PCA-Caleb Williams bromance?

Pete Crow-Armstrong on his friendship with Caleb Williams and the new era of Chicago sports: "We've definitely talked about what we want to build here … it's agreed upon by all of us that we want to give people something to look forward to." pic.twitter.com/JWUs5wy9aa

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) September 15, 2026

They Said It

• “A great example from last year is what Roki Sasaki did the last month, into the playoffs. That could happen. That’s a roadmap to how [Cabrera] could be really successful. Is that the best result? That was a pretty darn good result. But that’s what you keep yourself open to.” – Counsell
• “Minus maybe the first week or so, I feel like I’ve been one of the elite defenders in all of baseball. And I feel like we’ve got a team of elite defenders. I feel really good on that side of the ball as well.” – Bregman

Tuesday Walk-Up Song

Love and peace to you all. Go Cubs Go!