Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/20/26): Peterson Pitching, Offense Needs to Quiet Lowder
The Cubs moved a game ahead of the Phillies last night, but the Padres kept pace with their fourth win in a row. Every game takes on added importance as the Wild Card race remains as tight as it is, so this group can ill afford to play like NC State football down the stretch. That means leaving nothing to chance and burying the Reds in the series finale.
David Peterson has pitched well in his last two starts, and he held Cincy to two runs over five innings a little under a month ago. His game is predicated on keeping the ball on the ground, which is even more important at a ballpark known for homers. Peterson has to be sharp this afternoon.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is leading off in center, Seiya Suzuki is in right, Michael Busch is at first, and Alex Bregman handles third. Ian Happ is in left, Nico Hoerner takes short as Dansby Swanson eases back into action, and Michael Conforto is the DH. Pedro Ramírez resumes his role at second and Miguel Amaya is the catcher.
They’re facing 24-year-old righty Rhett Lowder for the fourth time this season, two of which were starts. The seventh overall pick from the 2023 draft has not pitched nearly as well as fellow Deamon Deacons hurler Chase Burns, who handled the Cubs on Friday. Though the two were never teammates at Wake Forest — Burns transferred there after two years at Tennessee — they’re linked by being top-10 picks from the same school who now pitch for the same team.
Lowder has been brought along carefully in his debut season, working some long relief/bulk outings in the middle of the season and never working more than six innings. Even so, he appears to have hit a wall in the second half with a 6.91 ERA and a decreased strikeout rate over his last 11 starts.
Lowder has struggled with both command and control, resulting in a low 17.4% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. Among the 135 MLB pitchers with at least 100 innings this season, Lowder’s 1.92 K/BB ratio is better than only 13 of them. The 85 mph slider he throws about 27% of the time is one of the main culprits there, as it frequently lands out of the zone due to its depth.
After generating huge strikeout numbers in the minors, Lowder is among the lowest in MLB when it comes to chase, whiff, and strikeout rates. Big leaguers have been able to spit on the slider because he just can’t locate it. His 94-94 mph sinker and four-seam have been much better, though he has a tendency to leave them both middle-middle a little too often. Both have good arm-side action, but his below-average velocity and short extension create little to no deception.
Lowder’s repertoire also features an 86 mph changeup that has gotten poor results despite getting serious depth and ASR. Like the slider, the problem appears to be location. Both pitches land out of the zone so frequently that hitters can easily lay off once they pick them up. The four-seam is his only pitch with any degree of red in the upper third of the strike zone heat maps, so you can just about guarantee that everything is going to be down.
Left-handed hitters carry a slightly lower average while reaching base and slugging much better than their right-handed counterparts, but Lowder is much better against both when pitching at Great American Ball Park. Regardless, the Cubs have no excuses today. They have to bum rush Lowder and get him out early, then play add-on against the bullpen.
First pitch is at 12:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
