Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/21/26): Boyd Facing M’s in Late-Night Start

Have I mentioned before how much I hate these late West Coast start times? Thankfully, tonight is the only game in the series that will stretch into the next day for those of us in earlier time zones. I’m not sure I’ll be able to stay awake for the whole thing, so I’m hoping for a blowout that allows me to turn in comfortably. That said, the pitching matchup doesn’t appear to be conducive to an early bedtime.

Matthew Boyd was roughed up quite badly his last time out against the Cardinals in what was the worst game of his Cubs career. According to the FanGraphs game score, it was his worst start since September 25, 2016 with the Tigers. Yeesh. I take that as a good sign, as he should bounce back nicely against a team that ranks 16th with a 100 wRC+ and 28th with a .304 wOBA.

The Mariners are even worse against lefties, with an 88 wRC+ (27th) and .287 wOBA (29th) that can be tied largely to the cratering of Cal Raleigh‘s performance. After shocking the world with 60 homers as a switch-hitting catcher, Raleigh is slashing .156/.273/.296 with 13 dongs, a 71 wRC+, and a .262 wOBA. As a right-handed batter, he’s at .140/.254/.272 with a 58 wRC+ and .244 wOBA.

That line looks like Buzz McCallister’s girlfriend: Woof!

The Cubs are sporting some much better numbers, especially leadoff man Pete Crow-Armstrong. Seiya Suzuki plays right, Michael Busch is at first, Alex Bregman is at third, and Ian Happ bats fifth in left. Nico Hoerner handles short, Pedro Ramírez is at second, Michael Conforto is the DH, and Carson Kelly does the catching.

Going for the M’s is righty Emerson Hancock, whose name was mentioned frequently as a possible Cubs target ahead of the deadline. After three partial seasons spent figuring out how to succeed at the highest level, Hancock has emerged as one of the better starters in the league. The Mariners probably expected a little more out of the sixth overall pick from 2020, but as Jason Heyward might say: “Better late than never, shit.”

Hancock’s fastball is now sitting north of 95 mph, almost three ticks higher than three years ago, and he’s incorporated a cutter that plays better off of his sweeper than his old slider did. The slider was his only breaking ball when he entered the league, and he threw it around 87 mph in very limited action. A change in 2024 saw him throw it only 83 mph with poor results; then he started throwing the sweeper last year.

The issue was that his breaking balls had very little separation in terms of velocity and shape, hence the move to a harder cutter that comes in around 86 mph. He favors that pitch a little more to lefties, with righties seeing a lot of 77 mph sweepers. Though he doesn’t get much extension, he’s able to create funky looks from a low arm slot. Coming from that sidearm angle with a heavy four-seam that plays like most pitchers’ sinkers has been the real key, though.

Emerson locates the fastball middle-up, with his heavy sinker working down to the arm side, allowing him to keep the ball out of the heart of the zone. As you have probably already guessed from his arm slot and repertoire, he’s a major east-west thrower who relies largely on commanding the zone to get his outs. He doesn’t get a lot of chase, nor does he induce a lot of weak contact. In fact, a look at his Baseball Savant slider will tell you that avoiding walks is the only thing he does particularly well.

My first instinct was to assume that his success has come from pitching in front of a strong defense, but the Mariners are actually one of the worst in MLB this season. They sit 29th with a fielding run value of -35, which is just brutal. So how is Hancock doing it? I think he’s basically like the overall pitching equivalent of a death ball, by which I mean that he doesn’t pitch like hitters expect him to.

Not only does he create tough angles with lots of horizontal movement, but he has that heavy hard stuff as well. So even though he’s not particularly adept at many individual facets, the overall package makes him successful. That’s why you can’t just look at sliders and determine how good a pitcher really is. Now we just have to hope the Cubs can shake off their recent offensive funk and get into a bullpen that isn’t nearly as good as the rotation.

First pitch is at 9:10pm CT on Marquee and The Score.